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How the future climate may modulate the non-breeding distribution of a Vulnerable gadfly petrel

机译：未来的气候如何调整易受伤害的牛fly海燕的非繁殖分布

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摘要

Understanding biodiversity distribution shifts caused by climate change is one of the top conservation concerns in modern biology. In this study, we entered 8 yr of geolocation tracking data of the single-island endemic and threatened Desertas petrel Pterodroma deserta into a species distribution model and quantified the species-habitat relationship and how its current wintering areas could change as a result of new climatic conditions. Our model found that the species' range would increase 430.6 +/- (SD) 57.8% in future scenarios compared to its current range, as long as the species is able to reach all of the new areas identified by the models. However, the suitability of current wintering areas in the Cape Verde Islands and on the US east coast would decrease 52.8 +/- 4.4% as a consequence of the predicted windier conditions. The Desertas petrel has a small population size (160-180 pairs) and is considered 'Vulnerable' according to IUCN criteria, and individuals show high inter-annual site-fidelity to their wintering grounds. Our findings raise conservation concerns about the future of this species, which might heavily depend on the flexibility of adults and the capacity of future generations to disperse and use new wintering areas.
机译：了解由气候变化引起的生物多样性分布变化是现代生物学中最重要的保护问题之一。在这项研究中，我们将单一岛地方病和濒临灭绝的荒漠海燕Pterodroma deserta的8年地理位置跟踪数据输入到物种分布模型中，并量化了物种与栖息地的关系以及由于新气候而其当前越冬区域如何变化条件。我们的模型发现，只要物种能够到达模型确定的所有新区域，与当前范围相比，该物种的范围在未来情况下将增加430.6 +/-（SD）57.8％。然而，由于预测的多风条件，佛得角群岛和美国东海岸当前越冬地区的适宜性将降低52.8 +/- 4.4％。荒漠海燕的人口较少（160至180对），根据IUCN的标准被认为是“脆弱的”，而且个体对越冬地的年际地点保真度很高。我们的发现引起了人们对该物种未来的关注，这在很大程度上取决于成年动物的灵活性以及子孙后代散布和使用新的越冬地区的能力。

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