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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Modeled larval fish prey fields and growth rates help predict recruitment success of cod and anchovy in the North Sea
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Modeled larval fish prey fields and growth rates help predict recruitment success of cod and anchovy in the North Sea

机译：建模的幼体鱼类猎物场和增长率有助于预测北海鳕鱼和an鱼的募集成功

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摘要

We introduce a new, coupled modeling approach for simulating ecosystem-wide patterns in larval fish foraging and growth. An application of the method reveals how interplay between temperature and plankton dynamics during 1970-2009 impacted a cold-water species (Atlantic cod Gadus morhua) and a warm-water species (European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus) in the North Sea. Larval fish growth rates were estimated by coupling models depicting traitbased foraging and bioenergetics of individuals, spatiotemporal changes in their prey field, and the biogeochemistry and hydrodynamics of the region. The biomass composition of modeled prey fields varied from 89% nano-, 10% micro-, and 1% mesoplankton to 15% nano-, 20% micro-, and 65% mesoplankton. The mean slope of the normalized biomass size spectrum was near -1.2, consistent with theoretical and empirical estimates. Median larval fish growth rates peaked in June for cod (24% d(-1)) and in July for anchovy (17% d(-1)). Insufficient prey resources played a substantial role in limiting the growth rates of cod larvae. Anchovy were consistently limited by cold temperatures. Faster median larval growth during specific months was significantly (p 0.05) positively associated with detrended (i.e. higher than expected) juvenile recruitment indices in cod (rank correlation Kendall's tau = 22%) and anchovy (tau = 42%). For cod, the most predictive month was February, which was also when food limitation was most prevalent. The continued development of modeling tools based on first principles can help further a mechanistic understanding of how changes in the environment affect the productivity of living marine resources.
机译：我们引入了一种新的耦合建模方法，用于模拟幼鱼觅食和生长中的整个生态系统模式。该方法的应用揭示了1970-2009年温度和浮游生物动力学之间的相互作用如何影响北海的冷水物种（大西洋鳕鱼Gadus morhua）和温水物种（欧洲an鱼Engraulis encrasicolus）。通过耦合模型估计幼体鱼的生长速度，该模型描述了个体基于特征的觅食和生物能，其猎物场的时空变化以及该地区的生物地球化学和水动力。建模的猎物场的生物量组成从89％的纳米浮游生物，10％的微浮游生物和1％的中浮游生物到15％的纳米浮游生物，20％的微浮游生物和65％的中浮游生物。归一化生物量尺寸谱的平均斜率接近-1.2，与理论和经验估计一致。鳕鱼的中值幼鱼增长率在6月达到峰值（d％-1为24％），凤尾鱼的中值幼鱼增长率为7％（d％-1）为7月。猎物资源不足在限制鳕鱼幼虫的生长速度中起着重要作用。 cold鱼一直受到低温的限制。在特定月份中，幼虫中位数的快速增长与鳕鱼（等级相关肯德尔的tau = 22％）和an鱼（tau = 42％）的未趋势化（即高于预期）的青少年招募指标显着正相关（p <0.05）。对于鳕鱼，最可预测的月份是2月，这也是食物限制最为普遍的月份。基于第一原理的建模工具的不断开发可以帮助进一步了解环境变化如何影响海洋生物资源的生产力。

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