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Tropicalization of fish assemblages in temperate biogeographic transition zones

机译：温带生物地理过渡区鱼类组合的热带化

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摘要

Biogeographic transition zones in marine temperate systems are often hotspots of biodiversity, with high levels of resilience to short-term climate shifts due to naturally occurring cyclic oscillations of oceanographic conditions. However, these environments are likely vulnerable to a steady global warming scenario in which these cyclical conditions could be disrupted. Here, we evaluate how changes in local oceanography affect the structure of rocky reef fish assemblages over a period of 50 yr in a biogeographic transition zone. Using a 12 yr time series of rocky reef fish assemblage structure, we identified the set of oceanographic variables that most influenced assemblage dynamics. Descriptive and predictive models (multivariate regression trees) were compared to observed data using the area under the curve. Winter northward wind stress and sea surface temperature (SST) were the most important drivers of change in assemblage structure. Only warmer years had indicator species with warm-temperate or tropical affinities. A fish assemblage 'tropicalization' index was developed in response to both local-spatial resolution and short-term environmental variation (1993-2011), and to regional spatial resolution and long-term SST (1960-2012). Predictive modelling for the last 50 yr revealed that species with tropical affinities have increased in frequency compared to cold-temperate species, coinciding with the trend of increasing mean winter SST. Since the mid-1980s, warm-temperate and tropical species have responded rapidly to more frequent warm winters, suggesting that species distributions are shifting polewards. Our results support a hypothesis that cold species retreat more slowly than the advance of warm species. We discuss the importance of transition zones as 'barometers' of climate change.
机译：海洋温带系统中的生物地理过渡区通常是生物多样性的热点，由于海洋条件自然发生的周期性振荡，因此对短期气候变化具有较高的适应能力。但是，这些环境可能会受到稳定的全球变暖情景的影响，在这些情景中，这些周期性状况可能会受到干扰。在这里，我们评估了生物地理学过渡带中50年内当地海洋学的变化如何影响礁石鱼群的结构。通过使用12年时间序列的礁石鱼组合结构，我们确定了对组合动力学影响最大的一组海洋变量。使用曲线下方的面积，将描述性和预测性模型（多元回归树）与观测数据进行比较。冬季北风和海表温度（SST）是改变组合结构的最重要驱动因素。只有温暖的年份才具有具有温带或热带亲和力的指示物种。针对局部空间分辨率和短期环境变化（1993-2011）以及区域空间分辨率和长期SST（1960-2012），开发了一种鱼类组合的“热带化”指数。过去50年的预测模型表明，与热带温带物种相比，具有热带亲和性的物种的频率有所增加，这与冬季平均SST升高的趋势相吻合。自1980年代中期以来，温带和热带物种对更频繁的暖冬做出了迅速反应，这表明物种分布向极移。我们的结果支持一个假设，即冷物种的退缩速度比暖物种的退缩速度慢。我们讨论了过渡区作为气候变化“晴雨表”的重要性。

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  • 来源
    《Marine ecology progress series》 |2014年第14期|241-252|共12页
  • 作者

    Barbara Horta e Costa; Jorge Assis; Gustavo Franco; Karim Erzini; Miguel Henriques; Emanuel J. Goncalves; Jennifer E. Caselle;

  • 作者单位

    Eco-Ethology Research Unit, ISPA - Institute Universitario, R. Jardim do Tabaco 34,1149-041 Lisboa, Portugal,Centre of Marine Sciences, CCMAR, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal;

    Centre of Marine Sciences, CCMAR, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal;

    Eco-Ethology Research Unit, ISPA - Institute Universitario, R. Jardim do Tabaco 34,1149-041 Lisboa, Portugal;

    Centre of Marine Sciences, CCMAR, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal;

    ICNF - Instituto de Conservacao da Natureza e das Florestas, IP, Parque Natural da Arrabida, Praca da Republica,2900-587 Setubal, Portugal;

    Eco-Ethology Research Unit, ISPA - Institute Universitario, R. Jardim do Tabaco 34,1149-041 Lisboa, Portugal;

    Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Marine biogeographic transition zone; Resilience; Climate change; Tropicalization; Fish assemblages; Species distribution shifts;

    机译：海洋生物地理过渡带;弹性;气候变化;热带化;鱼群;物种分布变化;

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