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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Geospatial statistics strengthen the ability of natural geochemical tags to estimate range-wide population connectivity in marine species
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Geospatial statistics strengthen the ability of natural geochemical tags to estimate range-wide population connectivity in marine species

机译：地理空间统计增强了自然地球化学标记估计海洋物种范围内的种群连通性的能力

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摘要

Using calcified structures as natural geochemical tags to estimate levels of population connectivity is becoming increasingly common. However, the technique suffers from several logistical and statistical problems that constrain its full application. Foremost is that only a subset of potential sources is sampled, often compounded by under-sampling within locations at an overly coarse spatial scale. This introduces unknown error and prevents the creation of a range-wide connectivity matrix. To address this issue, we analyzed the natural geochemical tags of embryonic statoliths in the whelk Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1850). We sampled from 23 sites over the entire geographic range in 2004 and 2005 from Monterey (California, USA) (36°N) to Isla Asuncion, (Baja California, Mexico) (27°N). We then used geospatial statistics (kriging) to make continuous along-coast maps of embryonic statolith chemistry. This allowed us to estimate chemistry at unsampled locations. We used this new continuous assignment method to estimate the spatial error associated with assignment by the classic method of discriminant function analysis (DFA). Then, we compared the performance of the 2 methods at classifying unknown embryonic statoliths. We found large spatial errors often associated with DFA assignments, even when traditional DFA accuracy assessments indicated the method was performing well. The continuous method provided an improved assessment of uncertainty in assignments. It outperformed the DFA method in classifying unknown embryos to the vicinity of their true source. Geospatial statistics also provided useful information on other range-wide variables, such as adult reproductive abundance. As a proxy for larval supply, such information can aid future assignments of recruits. Our combined analyses help inform sampling designs and motivate the development of a new approach for population connectivity studies.
机译：使用钙化结构作为自然地球化学标记来估计人口连通性水平变得越来越普遍。然而，该技术遭受若干后勤和统计问题，从而限制了其全面应用。最重要的是，仅对潜在来源的子集进行了采样，通常是由于在过于粗糙的空间范围内对位置进行欠采样而使结果更加复杂。这会引入未知错误，并阻止创建范围范围的连接矩阵。为了解决这个问题，我们分析了Kelletia kelletii（福布斯，1850年）中胚胎石笋的天然地球化学标记。我们在2004年和2005年从整个地理范围内的23个站点进行了采样，从蒙特雷（美国加利福尼亚州）（36°N）到艾斯拉松森（美国下加利福尼亚州）（27°N）。然后，我们使用地理空间统计（克里金法）制作了连续的胚胎针石化学的沿海地图。这使我们能够估计未采样位置的化学反应。我们使用这种新的连续分配方法，通过判别函数分析（DFA）的经典方法估算与分配相关的空间误差。然后，我们比较了两种方法对未知胚胎石笋进行分类的性能。我们发现，即使传统的DFA准确性评估表明该方法效果很好，也常常会与DFA分配相关联的大型空间误差。连续方法改进了对作业不确定性的评估。在将未知胚胎分类到其真实来源附近时，它的性能优于DFA方法。地理空间统计还提供了其他范围变量的有用信息，例如成年生殖丰度。作为幼体供应的代理，这些信息可以帮助新兵将来的工作。我们的综合分析有助于为抽样设计提供信息，并推动开发新的人口连通性研究方法。

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  • 来源
    《Marine ecology progress series》 |2014年第4期|33-51|共19页
  • 作者

    Sara E. Simmonds; Brian P. Kinlan; Crow White; Georges L. Paradis; Robert R. Warner; Danielle C. Zacherl;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1606, USA;

    Biogeography Branch, Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD 20910-3281, USA,Consolidated Safety Services, Inc., Fairfax, VA 22030, USA;

    Biological Sciences Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;

    Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA;

    Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA;

    Department of Biological Science, California State University Fullerton, CA 92834-6850, USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Connectivity; Larval dispersal; Kelletia kelletii; Statolith; Geochemical tags; Spatial variation; Geostatistics;

    机译：连接性;幼虫扩散;Kelletia kelletii;石蜡地球化学标签;空间变化;地统计学;

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