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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Robust assessment of population trends in marine mammals applied to New Caledonian humpback whales
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Robust assessment of population trends in marine mammals applied to New Caledonian humpback whales

机译：对新喀里多尼亚座头鲸的海洋哺乳动物种群趋势的稳健评估

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Estimating population trends for long-lived, migratory animals is challenging but essential for managing populations. Here we propose using a simple but potentially robust method, the direct estimation of population growth rate (PGR) from capture-recapture data. We considered an Endangered population of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae breeding and calving annually in the southern lagoon of New Caledonia. Studied since 1996, this population is known to exhibit a strong signal of transience, i.e. the presence of individuals that pass through the sampling area once, inducing detection heterogeneity. Another difficulty is that a more recently discovered second breeding and calving habitat (offshore seamounts to the south) has been surveyed with less intensity. Current direct PGR estimation models cannot deal with spatial sampling heterogeneity. In order to assess the reliability of the proposed method-in general and for our population in particular - we evaluated its robustness using simulations: first, when there are transient individuals; then, when the study area is split into 2 unequally sampled parts. We found no bias in PGR in the presence of transients. The bias with 2 unequally sampled parts depends on the amount and direction of exchanges, but appears negligible in our case study. The constant yearly PGR of the New Caledonian humpback whale population at the level of the 2 habitats was estimated at 1.15 (95% CI 1.11-1.20), suggesting outside recruitment. Whenever capture-recapture is feasible, we recommend the Pradel approach to estimate the PGR, validated with appropriate simulations, in order to assess population welfare.
机译：估计长期迁徙动物的种群趋势具有挑战性，但对于管理种群至关重要。在这里，我们建议使用一种简单但可能可靠的方法，根据捕获-捕获数据直接估算人口增长率（PGR）。我们考虑了每年在新喀里多尼亚南部泻湖繁殖和产犊的座头鲸的濒危种群Megaptera novaeangliae。自1996年以来进行研究，已知该种群表现出强烈的瞬时信号，即曾经通过采样区域的个体的存在，从而导致检测异质性。另一个困难是，对新近发现的第二繁殖和产犊栖息地（南部的沿海海山）进行了强度较低的调查。当前的直接PGR估计模型无法处理空间采样异质性。为了评估所提出方法的可靠性（总体而言，尤其是对于我们的人群），我们使用仿真评估了其鲁棒性：首先，当有短暂个体时；然后，当研究区域分为两个不相等的采样部分时。我们发现存在瞬变时，PGR没有偏差。 2个采样部分不相等的偏差取决于交换的数量和方向，但在我们的案例研究中似乎可以忽略不计。在这两个栖息地的水平上，新喀里多尼亚座头鲸种群的年均PGR估计为1.15（95％CI 1.11-1.20），表明需要外部招募。只要可行的话，我们建议使用Pradel方法估算PGR，并通过适当的模拟进行验证，以评估人口福利。

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