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Spatial and temporal predictions of inter-decadal trends in Indian Ocean whale sharks

机译：印度洋鲸鲨年代际趋势的时空预测

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摘要

The processes driving temporal distribution and abundance patterns of whale sharks Rhincodon typus remain largely unexplained. We present an analysis of whale shark occurrence in the western Indian Ocean, incorporating both spatial and temporal elements. We tested the hypothesis that the average sighting probability of sharks has not changed over nearly 2 decades, and evaluated whether variance in sightings can be partially explained by climate signals. We used a 17 yr dataset (1991 to 2007, autumn only) of whale shark observations recorded in the logbooks of tuna purse-seiners. We randomly generated pseudo-absences and applied sequential generalized linear mixed-effects models within a multi-model information-theoretic framework, accounting for sampling effort and random annual variation, to evaluate the relative importance of temporal and climatic predictors to sighting probability. After accounting for seasonal patterns in distribution, we found evidence that sighting probability increased slightly in the first half of the sampling interval (1991-2000) and decreased thereafter (2000-2007). The model including a spatial predictor of occurrence, fishing effort, time2 and a random spatial effect explained -60% of the deviance in sighting probability. After including climatic predictors, we found that sighting probability increased slightly with rising temperature in the central Pacific Ocean and reduced temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The declining phase of the peak, concurrent with recent accounts of declines in population size at near-shore aggregations and with the most pronounced global warming, deserves continued investigation. Teasing apart the legacy effects of past exploitation and those arising from on-going climate changes will be a major challenge for the successful long-term management of the species.
机译：鲸鲨Rhincodon typus的时间分布和丰度模式的驱动过程仍然无法解释。我们提出了在印度洋西部鲸鲨的发生的分析，其中包括时空因素。我们检验了鲨鱼的平均观测概率在近20年内没有变化的假设，并评估了观测信号的变化是否可以部分由气候信号解释。我们使用了金枪鱼围网渔船日志中记录的17年数据集（1991年至2007年，仅秋季）。我们随机生成伪缺席，并在多模型信息理论框架内应用顺序广义线性混合效应模型，该模型考虑了抽样工作和年度随机变化，以评估时间和气候预测因素对观测概率的相对重要性。在考虑了分布的季节性模式之后，我们发现有证据表明，在抽样间隔的前半段（1991-2000年）内，瞄准的概率略有增加，而在随后的2000-2007年间，降低了。该模型包括事件发生的空间预测因子，捕捞努力，时间2和随机空间效应，可以解释-60％的瞄准概率偏差。包括气候预测因素后，我们发现，随着太平洋中部温度升高和印度洋温度降低，观测概率略有增加。高峰期的下降阶段，与最近近岸人口规模减少以及全球变暖最明显的最新报道有关，值得继续研究。区分过去开采的遗留影响和持续的气候变化所产生的遗留影响，将是成功对该物种进行长期管理的主要挑战。

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  • 来源
    《Marine ecology progress series》 |2013年第25期|185-195|共11页
  • 作者

    Ana M. M. Sequeira; Camille Mellin; Steven Delean; Mark G. Meekan; Corey J. A. Bradshaw;

  • 作者单位

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia,Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia;

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia;

    Australian Institute of Marine Science, UWA Oceans Institute (MO96), 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia;

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia,South Australian Research and Development Institute, PO Box 120, Henley Beach, South Australia 5022, Australia;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    temporal trends; rhincodon typus; tuna purse-seine fisheries; generalized linear mixed-effects models; spatial distribution; satellite data;

    机译：时间趋势;犀牛斑疹伤寒;金枪鱼围网渔业;广义线性混合效应模型;空间分布;卫星资料;

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