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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models
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Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models

机译：通过非线性时间序列模型将白令海东部水母种群的变化与环境因素联系起来

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摘要

The Bering Sea ecosystem, has experienced significant climatic and biological shifts over the past 3 decades, including temporal and spatial fluctuations of jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish are important predators and competitors of fish; thus, it is critical to understand the effects of environmental factors on their population dynamics. We explored the effects of ocean bottom temperatures and circulation on jellyfish populations using a non-parametric, nonlinear multiple time series analysis of a 23 yr dataset. The study area was divided into 3 subregions that reflected distinct jellyfish catches and distributions. Aggregations and the influence of temperature and circulation on jellyfish biomass were found to differ in each of the 3 subregions. The northern region biomass was affected by central biomass, mediated by the strength of advection from the central region. In both the northern and central regions, current-year biomass was associated with lag-1 biomass, but was mediated by local bottom temperatures (colder temperatures strengthened the relationship with lag-1 biomass). However, in the central region, this relationship held only for the period after 1997. Prior to 1997, advection from the southern region drove central region biomass, suggesting that the primary source of jellyfish biomass to the central eastern Bering Sea shelf changed, coming from the southern shelf before 1997 and from the central shelf after 1997. The southern jellyfish biomass was affected by only the lag-1 southern jellyfish biomass. Transport from the south may have seeded the central region in the early 1990s, but once established, jellyfish polyp populations near islands in the central region may have supplied the area with medusae in the late 1990s.
机译：在过去的30年中，白令海生态系统经历了重大的气候和生物变化，包括水母生物量的时空波动。水母是鱼类的重要捕食者和竞争者。因此，了解环境因素对其种群动态的影响至关重要。我们使用23年数据集的非参数，非线性多时间序列分析，探索了海底温度和环流对水母种群的影响。研究区域分为三个子区域，分别反映了不同的水母捕获量和分布。发现在三个子区域中的每个区域，聚集体以及温度和循环对水母生物量的影响都不同。北部地区的生物量受中央生物量的影响，中央生物量受中部地区对流强度的影响。在北部和中部地区，当年的生物量都与lag-1生物量相关联，但受当地最低温度的影响（冷水温度加强了与lag-1生物量的关系）。但是，在中部地区，这种关系仅持续到1997年以后。1997年之前，南部地区的平流推动了中部地区的生物量，这表明白令海东部中部海el生物质的主要来源发生了变化，在1997年之前的南部大陆架和1997年之后的中央大陆架。南部水母的生物量仅受lag-1南部水母生物量的影响。来自南部的运输可能在1990年代初为中部地区播种，但一旦建立，中部地区岛屿附近的水母息肉种群可能在1990年代后期为该地区提供了水母。

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  • 来源
    《Marine ecology progress series》 |2013年第4期|179-189|共11页
  • 作者

    Mary Beth Decker; Hai Liu; Lorenzo Ciannelli; Carol Ladd; Wei Cheng; Kung-Sik Chan;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA;

    Indiana University School of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Indianapolis, Indiana 46202, USA;

    College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA;

    Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA;

    Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA;

    Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Scyphomedusae; Biophysical conditions; Climate change; Time series;

    机译：鳞翅目生物物理条件;气候变化;时间序列;

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