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Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

机译：出乎意料的生物变化和全球变暖

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Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus fin-marchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called 'surprises' in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past.
机译：现在，全球变暖的证据是明确的，研究表明，它已经开始影响地球的自然系统，包括海洋。然而，在海洋环境中，众所周知，物种和生态系统也可能受到大规模水文气候变化的自然资源的影响。北大西洋涛动（NAO）与北海亚北极关键物种Calanus fin-marchicus之一的平均丰度呈负相关。人们认为这种相关性在1996年已被打破，但是这一时机从未经过统计检验。本研究重新审视了这一出乎意料的变化，并揭示了这种相关性并没有像最初提出的那样在1996年被打破，而是在1980年代北海生态系统突然转变之时打破了。此外，分析表明，北海的热态调节了NAO和finmarchicus的丰度之间的相关性，而北海的热态又与全球温度异常呈正相关。因此，这项研究提供了证据，表明全球气候变化可能会改变过去发现的物种丰富度或生态系统状态与水文气候变化的大规模自然源之间的某些经验关系。提出了一种理论来解释这种情况如何发生。这些意料之外的变化，在气候研究中也被称为“意外”，是气候和生物系统复杂性的直接结果。因此，在这个快速的气候变化时期，如过去有时尝试的那样，将气象海洋指数（如NAO）整合到用于生物资源管理的模型中是很危险的。

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