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Phenology of pelagic seabird abundance relative to marine climate change in the Alaska Gyre

机译：阿拉斯加环流中上层海鸟丰度与海洋气候变化的物候学

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In relation to climate change, a common finding from long-term studies on marine ecosystems is earlier annual peaks of abundance for many organisms. Here, we test the hypothesis of unidirectional change in the seasonal abundance of pelagic seabirds in association with change in marine climate and primary productivity in the Alaska Gyre. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed data on hydrographic conditions and seasonal at-sea abundance of seabirds along a 1425 km transect (Line P) over 11 yr, 1996 to 2006. Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) data show warming in the study region, advanced and delayed temperature peaks and northwestward isotherm displacement. Using negative binomial regression, we tested seasonal trends in the relative abundance of 15 seabird species and compared abundances to a multivariate ocean climate index we developed with principal component analysis from in situ measurements of water temperature, salinity, density and nitrate concentrations. Overall, 5 species showed no change, 1 declined, and 9 species as well as all species combined showed increasing abundance. By season, 3 species increased in winter, 7 in late spring, and 6 in late summer. Eight of 15 species showed relationships with our environmental index. Increases in seasonal seabird abundance may be related to lengthening of the 'growing season', as demonstrated by temporal temperature shifts and expansion of peak chlorophyll concentrations. Seabirds of the Alaska Gyre are probably responding to changes in forage nekton that are related to this extended growing season by shifting their migration to later dates.
机译：关于气候变化，对海洋生态系统进行长期研究的共同发现是，许多生物的早期年度丰度达到峰值。在这里，我们测试了中上层海鸟季节性丰度与海洋气候变化和阿拉斯加回转带初级生产力相关的单向变化的假设。为了验证该假设，我们分析了1996年至2006年11年间沿着1425 km样带（P线）的海鸟的水文条件和季节性海丰度数据。长期海表温度（SST）数据显示海温升高。研究区域，提前和延迟的温度峰值以及西北等温线位移。使用负二项式回归，我们测试了15种海鸟的相对丰度的季节性趋势，并将丰度与我们通过水温，盐度，密度和硝酸盐浓度的原位分析开发的多元海洋气候指数进行了主成分分析。总体而言，5种没有变化，1种下降了，9种以及所有种的总和都显示出增加。按季节，冬季增加了3种，春季晚些时候增加了7种，夏末增加了6种。 15个物种中有8个与我们的环境指数相关。季节性海鸟丰度的增加可能与“生长季节”的延长有关，如时间温度变化和叶绿素浓度峰值的增加所证明。阿拉斯加海峡的海鸟可能通过将其迁徙迁至较晚的日期来应对与该生长季节延长有关的饲草神经元的变化。

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