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Update on the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Calanus finmarchicus

机译:北大西洋涛动与Calaus finmarchicus关系的最新信息

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The relationship between climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the calanoid copepod Calanus finmarchicus has been extensively studied. The correlation between NAO and C. finmarchicus has broken down (post-1995). In the present study, we revisit the relationship between C. finmarchicus and the NAO. Our reanalysis shows that previous treatment of this data did not take into account 2 aspects of both the C. finmarchicus and NAO index time-series: (1) the presence of significant trends and (2) significant autocorrelation. Our analysis suggests that previously reported relationships between NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance can be explained largely by the trends in both data series. Removing the trend from both time-series resulted in a decrease in the amount of C. finmarchicus abundance variability explained by the NAO. Trend removal eliminated the autocorrelation from the NAO time-series, but not from the C. finmarchicus time-series. Partial autocorrelation analysis showed that the autocorrelation present in the C. finmarchicus time-series is only found at a lag of 1 yr, suggesting strong, year-to-year connectivity in this population. We included the lagged C. finmarchicus abundance into a regression with the NAO and found that C. finmarchicus variability is explained by the previous year's abundance and, to a much smaller extent, by NAO variability. Limiting the time-series to the most recent 22 yr period (1981 to 2002) showed that the NAO is no longer correlated to C. finmarchicus abundance, and the autocorrelation in the C. finmarchicus abundance series also appears to be weakening.
机译:以北大西洋涛动(NAO)为代表的气候与cal足类pe足类的Calanus finmarchicus之间的关系已得到广泛研究。 NAO和C. finmarchicus之间的相关性已分解(1995年后)。在本研究中,我们将重新审视C. finmarchicus和NAO之间的关系。我们的重新分析表明,对该数据的先前处理未同时考虑fin.chimarchicus和NAO指数时间序列的两个方面:(1)存在显着趋势和(2)显着自相关。我们的分析表明,以前报道的NAO和finmarchicus丰度之间的关系在很大程度上可以由两个数据系列的趋势来解释。 NAO解释说,从两个时间序列中删除该趋势都会导致finmarchicus的丰度变异性降低。趋势消除消除了NAO时间序列中的自相关,但消除了C. finmarchicus时间序列中的自相关。局部自相关分析表明,仅存在于finmarchicus时间序列中的自相关时间为1年,这表明该人群中的年与年之间具有很强的连通性。我们使用NAO将滞后的C. finmarchicus丰度纳入回归分析,发现fin。C. finmarchicus的差异可以由前一年的丰度来解释,而在较小的程度上可以由NAO的差异来解释。将时间序列限制为最近的22年(1981年至2002年)表明,NAO与finmarchicus的丰度不再相关,并且finmarchicus的丰度系列的自相关也似乎正在减弱。

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