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首页> 外文期刊>Marine ecology progress series >Exposing changing phenology of fish larvae by modeling climate effects on temporal early life-stage shifts
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Exposing changing phenology of fish larvae by modeling climate effects on temporal early life-stage shifts

机译：通过对时间早期寿命阶段的影响来揭示鱼类幼虫的变化候选

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Changing environmental conditions are influencing the seasonal timing in life history events of organisms. Such shifts in phenology are often linked to increasing temperatures that stimulate faster developments or earlier arrivals. This phenomenon has been demonstrated in terrestrial and aquatic realms, but data and knowledge are limited on how early life stages of fish are affected over long-term and broad environmental scales. Here, we analyze 2 decades (1974-1996) of size class-specific Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras L. larval data along the whole coast of Finland to expose shifts in phenology linked to changes in environmental covariates. We use a novel Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal hurdle model that describes larval occurrence and abundance with separate processes. Abundances are modeled with the Ricker population growth model that enables us to predict size-specific larvae groups in relation to the environment while accounting for population density dependence. We quantify shifts in phenology at multiple life stages, based on first appearances of smallest larvae (10 mm) and by detection of higher proportions of larger larvae (15 mm) appearing earlier than they have done historically. Our results show a strong signal in shifting phenology of the larvae toward an earlier development of 7.7 d per decade. Increasing temperature had a positive effect on the earlier development of larger larvae. Additionally, we highlight that the survival of larvae becomes more density dependent as their size increases. Our modeling framework can reveal phenological shifts of early life stages in relation to environmental change for survey data that do not necessarily cover the onset of reproduction.
机译：不断变化的环境条件正在影响生物体生命历史事件的季节性时机。候选的这种偏移通常与刺激更快的发展或更早的抵达的升高的温度相关联。这种现象已经在陆地和水生领域证明，但数据和知识有限于鱼类早期生命阶段如何影响长期和广泛的环境尺度。在这里，我们分析了芬兰整个海岸的规模特异性波罗的海鲱鱼Clupea Herengus Membras L. Larval数据的分析。我们使用新颖的贝叶斯分层时空障碍模型，描述幼虫发生和具有独立过程的丰富。丰富的丰富是用Ricker人口增长模型建模的，使我们能够预测与环境相关的尺寸特异性幼虫组，同时占人口密度依赖性。我们基于最小幼虫（＆10mm）的第一个出现，并通过比历史上更早地出现的较高幼虫（＆gt.15mm）的更高比例的较高比例，量化多生命阶段的转变。我们的结果表明，幼虫的候选候选迄今为止每十年7.7天的发展强劲。越来越多的温度对较少数幼虫的发展具有积极影响。此外，我们强调幼虫的存活率随着它们的尺寸增加而取决于更密度。我们的建模框架可以揭示与环境变革相关的初期生命阶段的象征变化，该调查数据不一定涵盖繁殖开始的情况。

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