• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Maritime economics & logistics >Forecasting seasonal container throughput at international ports using SARIMA models
【24h】

Forecasting seasonal container throughput at international ports using SARIMA models

机译：使用SARIMA模型预测国际港口的季节性集装箱吞吐量

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Seasonal container throughput forecasts at ports are immensely important to logistics companies, shipping lines, port authorities and shipyards. Such forecasts allow shipping lines and port operators to formulate appropriate short-to-medium strategies in order to maintain competitiveness. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (in short, SARIMA) models can be employed for this purpose to provide reliable seasonal forecasts of container throughput at a given container port. This article explores the use of SARIMA models in forecasting container throughput at several major international container ports, while taking into consideration seasonal variations. First, the SARIMA model development methodology is described. Second, a database consisting of monthly container port traffic data between 1999 and 2007 for international container ports is developed. Shortterm container demand forecasting models are then developed for each of the top 20 international container ports for the purpose of monthly container throughput prediction. Through the use of various performance metrics, the effectiveness of the developed SARIMA models for these ports is evaluated. It is found that SARIMA models can produce reliable throughput forecasts at major international ports. Qualitative insights are then drawn, thereby allowing shipping and port operators to make better tactical and operational decisions.
机译：港口季节性集装箱吞吐量预测对物流公司，航运公司，港口当局和造船厂极为重要。这样的预测使航运公司和港口运营商可以制定适当的中短期战略，以保持竞争力。季节性自回归综合移动平均（简称SARIMA）模型可用于此目的，以在给定的集装箱港口提供可靠的集装箱吞吐量季节性预测。本文探讨了SARIMA模型在预测几个主要国际集装箱港口的集装箱吞吐量时的使用，同时考虑了季节性变化。首先，描述了SARIMA模型开发方法。其次，建立了一个数据库，该数据库由1999年至2007年之间国际集装箱港口的每月集装箱港口交通数据组成。然后，针对每月集装箱吞吐量的预测，针对前20个国际集装箱港口中的每个港口开发了短期集装箱需求预测模型。通过使用各种性能指标，可以评估针对这些端口开发的SARIMA模型的有效性。结果发现，SARIMA模型可以在主要国际港口提供可靠的吞吐量预测。然后得出定性见解，从而使运输和港口运营商可以制定更好的战术和运营决策。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号