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Modelling the global maritime container network

机译：为全球海运集装箱网络建模

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Travel demand modelling has a long history going back to 50s when the conventional four-step modelling structure was introduced and developed for Chicago and Detroit, USA. However, the first travel demand models for freight movements were not developed until 40 years after the first model for passenger cars. Freight models are yet limited to studies looking at goods movements by truck and rail. This paper explores the effectiveness of the conventional travel demand modelling techniques for maritime container movements. Two approaches for modelling the movement of trade in the global maritime container network are discussed. The conventional methods of trip generation and distribution are applied in a sequential model, and compared against an alternative joint model methodology. Results show that the sequential methodology achieves high accuracy, while the joint methodology reveals more detailed trade relationships. Significant relationships are revealed, such as the varying influence of airports, the negative impact of coastline length and the impact of being an island, on containerised trade volumes. The findings of this paper provide a basis for modelling the container network from a transportation discipline viewpoint.
机译：在美国芝加哥和底特律引入并开发了常规的四步建模结构后，旅行需求建模的历史可以追溯到50年代。但是，直到第一个乘用车模型问世40年后，才开发出第一个货运运动旅行需求模型。货运模型还仅限于研究卡车和铁路的货物运输。本文探讨了常规旅行需求建模技术对海上集装箱运输的有效性。讨论了建模全球海运集装箱网络中贸易流动的两种方法。行程生成和分配的常规方法应用于顺序模型，并与其他联合模型方法进行比较。结果表明，顺序方法可达到较高的准确性，而联合方法可显示更详细的贸易关系。揭示了重要的关系，例如机场的变化影响，海岸线长度的负面影响以及岛屿化对集装箱贸易量的影响。本文的研究结果为从运输学科的角度对集装箱网络进行建模提供了基础。

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