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Probabilistic Analysis of Tunnel Face Stability below River Using Bayesian Framework

机译：贝叶斯框架下河床隧道面板稳定性的概率分析

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摘要

A key issue in assessment on tunnel face stability is a reliable evaluation of required support pressure on the tunnel face and its variations during tunnel excavation. In this paper, a Bayesian framework involving Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is implemented to estimate the uncertainties of limit support pressure. The probabilistic analysis for the three-dimensional face stability of tunnel below river is presented. The friction angle and cohesion are considered as random variables. The uncertainties of friction angle and cohesion and their effects on tunnel face stability prediction are evaluated using the Bayesian method. The three-dimensional model of tunnel face stability below river is based on the limit equilibrium theory and is adopted for the probabilistic analysis. The results show that the posterior uncertainty bounds of friction angle and cohesion are much narrower than the prior ones, implying that the reduction of uncertainty in cohesion and friction significantly reduces the uncertainty of limit support pressure. The uncertainty encompassed in strength parameters are greatly reduced by the MCMC simulation. By conducting uncertainty analysis, MCMC simulation exhibits powerful capability for improving the reliability and accuracy of computational time and calculations.
机译：评估隧道工作面稳定性的关键问题是对隧道工作面要求的支撑压力及其在隧道开挖过程中变化的可靠评估。本文采用了包含马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）模拟的贝叶斯框架来估计极限支撑压力的不确定性。提出了河底隧道三维三维稳定性的概率分析。摩擦角和内聚力被认为是随机变量。使用贝叶斯方法评估了摩擦角和内聚力的不确定性及其对隧道面稳定性预测的影响。基于极限平衡理论的河床隧道面三维三维模型用于概率分析。结果表明，摩擦角和内聚力的后验不确定性范围比以前的窄得多，这意味着内聚力和摩擦力的不确定性降低显着降低了极限支撑压力的不确定性。 MCMC仿真大大降低了强度参数中包含的不确定性。通过进行不确定性分析，MCMC仿真具有强大的功能，可以提高计算时间和计算的可靠性和准确性。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2018年第6期|1450683.1-1450683.8|共8页
  • 作者

    Liu Weiping; Luo Xiaoyan; Huang Jinsong; Hu Lina; Fu Mingfu;

  • 作者单位

    Nanchang Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Architecture, Nanchang 330031, Jiangxi, Peoples R China;

    Jiangxi Sci & Technol Normal Univ, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China;

    Univ Newcastle, ARC Ctr Excellence Geotech Sci & Engn, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia;

    Nanchang Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Architecture, Nanchang 330031, Jiangxi, Peoples R China;

    Nanchang Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Architecture, Nanchang 330031, Jiangxi, Peoples R China;

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