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Quantitative Risk Evaluation Model of the Multilevel Complex Structure Hierarchical System in the Petrochemical Industry

机译：石化行业多层次复杂结构层次系统定量风险评估模型

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摘要

In the petrochemical production system, the high-risk items malfunction may lead to major accidents so that the risk level of the items has become the highest focus of attention for the enterprises in petrochemical industry. Based on structural composition and risk relationship, a risk evaluation framework of the petrochemical production system can generally be divided into subsystems (SS), components and parts (CP), failure modes (FM), risk types, and risk factors. So it is a characteristic of multilevel, complex structure, and lack of evaluation criteria that the evaluated object has in the process of risk evaluation. However, there are few targeted modeling and calculation methods to carry out quantitative risk evaluation in the face of the evaluated object. In order to achieve risk quantitative evaluation of the complex structure hierarchical system, a multilevel Borda model (MLBM) is presented innovatively by us based on the traditional Borda method in this study. Moreover, the MLBM are applied to realize quantitative risk evaluation of the main structure system of truss type crane on the offshore platform. In this case study, the equivalent risk value (ERV) and risk priority number (RPN) of the evaluated object with multilevel, complex structure, and inadequate evaluation criteria are calculated and the risk ties in the RPN are effectively reduced. Then, the quantitative risk results can clarify the risk level and distribution of the high-risk items throughout the production system and provide data support for the development of risk control measures to better protect the production safety. Hence, the feasibility and practicability of the method are verified with the case study. The MLBM can be used to solve other comprehensive evaluation problems with a complex hierarchical structure as well.
机译：在石化生产系统中，高风险物品的故障可能导致重大事故，因此物品的风险等级已成为石化行业企业关注的重点。基于结构组成和风险关系，石化生产系统的风险评估框架通常可以分为子系统（SS），组件和零件（CP），失效模式（FM），风险类型和风险因素。因此，在风险评估过程中，被评估对象具有多层次，结构复杂，缺乏评估标准的特点。但是，很少有针对性的建模和计算方法来面对被评估对象进行定量风险评估。为了实现对复杂结构层次系统的风险定量评估，本研究在传统Borda方法的基础上创新地提出了多层Borda模型（MLBM）。并应用MLBM对海上平台上的桁架式起重机主结构系统进行定量风险评估。在本案例研究中，计算了具有多级，复杂结构和评估标准不充分的被评估对象的等效风险值（ERV）和风险优先级数（RPN），有效减少了RPN中的风险联系。然后，定量的风险结果可以阐明高风险项目在整个生产系统中的风险级别和分布，并为制定风险控制措施提供数据支持，以更好地保护生产安全。因此，通过案例研究验证了该方法的可行性和实用性。 MLBM还可用于解决具有复杂层次结构的其他综合评估问题。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2019年第2期|9328634.1-9328634.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Tang Yang; Shu Jiangjun; Li Wang; He Yin; Yang Yan; Sun Peng;

  • 作者单位

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Mechatron Engn Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China|Southwest Petr Univ State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploita Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China|Southwest Petr Univ Minist Educ Key Lab Oil & Gas Equipment Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Mechatron Engn Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

    Southwest Petr Univ Sch Sci Chengdu 610500 Sichuan Peoples R China;

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