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Uncertainty Instability Risk Analysis of High Concrete Arch Dam Abutments

机译：高混凝土拱坝基台的不确定性失稳风险分析

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摘要

The uncertainties associated with concrete arch dams rise with the increased height of dams. Given the uncertainties associated with influencing factors, the stability of high arch dam abutments as a fuzzy random event was studied. In addition, given the randomness and fuzziness of calculation parameters as well as the failure criterion, hazard point and hazard surface uncertainty instability risk ratio models were proposed for high arch dam abutments on the basis of credibility theory. The uncertainty instability failure criterion was derived through the analysis of the progressive instability failure process on the basis of Shannon's entropy theory. The uncertainties associated with influencing factors were quantized by probability or possibility distribution assignments. Gaussian random theory was used to generate random realizations for influence factors with spatial variability. The uncertainty stability analysis method was proposed by combining the finite element analysis and the limit equilibrium method. The instability risk ratio was calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy random postprocessing. Results corroborate that the modeling approach is sound and that the calculation method is feasible.
机译：与混凝土拱坝有关的不确定性随坝高的增加而增加。考虑到影响因素的不确定性，研究了高拱坝坝肩作为模糊随机事件的稳定性。此外，考虑到计算参数的随机性和模糊性以及失效准则，基于可信度理论，提出了高拱坝基台的危险点和危险面不确定性失稳风险比模型。基于香农熵理论，通过对渐进失稳过程的分析，得出了不确定性失稳判据。与影响因素相关的不确定性通过概率或可能性分布分配进行量化。使用高斯随机理论来生成具有空间可变性的影响因素的随机实现。结合有限元分析和极限平衡法，提出了不确定性稳定性分析方法。使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法和模糊随机后处理计算不稳定性风险比。结果证实了建模方法的正确性和计算方法的可行性。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2017年第9期|6037125.1-6037125.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Cao Xin; Gu Chongshi; Zhao Erfeng;

  • 作者单位

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

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