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首页> 外文期刊>Mathematical Problems in Engineering >Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach
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Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

机译：宁夏电力系统规划环境与经济优化模型：不精确随机风险规避规划方法

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摘要

The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager's perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker's risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.
机译：本文的主要目的是从管理者的角度考虑各种不确定性，为电力系统的长期规划提供一个新颖的风险规避模型。该方法将区间参数规划和两阶段随机规划相结合，以解决技术，经济和政策的不确定性。此外，引入了下行风险理论，以根据决策者的风险规避态度在利润和风险之间进行权衡。为了验证这种方法的有效性和实际应用，针对宁夏回族自治区的区域电力系统规划和管理开发了一种不精确的随机风险规避模型。该系列解决方案为决策者提供了不同的未来减排方案和风险规避水平下的最佳投资策略和运营管理。结果表明，污染控制装置仍然是实现当前减排目标的主要措施，并且随着严格的环境政策，发电结构的调整将在未来的清洁电力系统中发挥重要作用。此外，该模型可用于生成决策选择方案，并帮助决策者在各种经济和系统可靠性约束下确定所需的能源结构调整和污染物/碳减排政策。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2015年第1期|236958.1-236958.17|共17页
  • 作者

    Ji L.; Niu D. X.; Huang G. H.; Li W.; Liu Z. P.;

  • 作者单位

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Res Inst Technol Econ Forecasting & Assessment, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.;

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Res Inst Technol Econ Forecasting & Assessment, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.;

    Univ Regina, Fac Engn, Environm Syst Engn Program, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada.;

    North China Elect Power Univ, S&C Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.;

    North China Elect Power Univ, S&C Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.;

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