Highway Traffic Flow Nonlinear Character Analysis and Prediction

Hui Meng; Bai Lin; Li YanBo; Wu QiSheng

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Highway Traffic Flow Nonlinear Character Analysis and Prediction

机译：公路交通流非线性特征分析与预测

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In order to meet the highway guidance demand, this work studies the short-term traffic flow prediction method of highway. The Yu-Wu highway which is the main road in Chongqing, China, traffic flow time series is taken as the study object. It uses phase space reconstruction theory and Lyapunov exponent to analyze the nonlinear character of traffic flow. A new Volterra prediction method based on model order reduction via quadratic-linear systems (QLMOR) is applied to predict the traffic flow. Compared with Taylor-expansion-based methods, these QLMOR-reduced Volterra models retain more information of the system and more accuracy. The simulation results using this new Volterra model to predict short time traffic flow reveal that the accuracy of chaotic traffic flow prediction is enough for highway guidance and could be a new reference for intelligent highway management.

机译：为了满足高速公路引导的需求，本文研究了高速公路的短期交通流量预测方法。以重庆市的主干道-渝乌高速公路为研究对象，对交通流时间序列进行了研究。它利用相空间重构理论和李雅普诺夫指数分析了交通流的非线性特征。提出了一种基于二次线性系统（QLMOR）模型降阶的新型Volterra预测方法来预测交通流量。与基于泰勒展开法的方法相比，这些QLMOR简化后的Volterra模型保留了更多的系统信息和更高的准确性。使用这种新的Volterra模型预测短时交通流量的仿真结果表明，混沌交通流量预测的准确性足以用于高速公路引导，并且可以为智能高速公路管理提供新的参考。

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《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2015年第17期|902191.1-902191.7|共7页
作者
Hui Meng; Bai Lin; Li YanBo; Wu QiSheng;
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Changan Univ, Sch Elect & Control, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.;

Changan Univ, Sch Elect & Control, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.;

Changan Univ, Sch Elect & Control, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.;

Changan Univ, Sch Elect & Control, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.;

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1. Nonlinear analysis of traffic flow on a gradient highway [J] . Zhu W.-X., Yu R.-L. Physica, A. Statistical mechanics and its applications . 2012,第4期

机译：梯度公路交通流的非线性分析
2. Exploring spatiotemporal mobilities of highway traffic flows for precise travel time estimation and prediction based on electronic toll collection data [J] . Chen Lien-Wu, Chen Da-En Vehicular Communications . 2021,第Auga期

机译：基于电子收费数据的精确旅行时间估算和预测，探索公路交通流量的时空迁移性
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机译：公路网络交通流预测图卷积方法
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机译：利用机器学习算法执行在线和离线高速公路交通流量预测
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机译：复杂运输网络（统一，高阶模型，宏观，简单连续体，高速公路复杂性）中交通流量的建模与分析。
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机译：基于奇异谱分析和核极限学习机的混合短时交通流预测模型
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机译：车辆类型对高速公路交通流量的影响：车辆类型对英国和沙特阿拉伯高速公路交通流量的速度，延迟和通行能力特征的影响，取决于交通数据的检查。
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机译：新型公路交通噪声预测模型的研制。第5卷.psUHTRaN公路交通噪声预测模型的基础

Highway Traffic Flow Nonlinear Character Analysis and Prediction

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