Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

Yang Neng-pu; Han Mei; Chen Shi-yong; Liu Xiao-hua; Kang Liu-jiang

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Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

机译：基于改进的Buckley决策和贝叶斯网络的评估方法研究

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摘要

This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley DecisionMaking, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

机译：这项工作提出了一种新颖的评估方法，可以应用于风险评估，项目管理，原因分析等领域。该方法使用了两种核心技术，即改进的Buckley决策和贝叶斯网络。基于改进的Buckley DecisionMaking，对元素因子的模糊概率进行了校正。通过贝叶斯网络的前向和后向计算，计算并讨论了每个因素的结构重要性，概率重要性和临界重要性。给出了危险品运输过程风险评估的数值算例，验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明，该方法可以有效地识别最弱的元素因子。另外，该方法可以提高评估的可靠性和客观性。

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来源
《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2015年第19期|489207.1-489207.7|共7页
作者
Yang Neng-pu; Han Mei; Chen Shi-yong; Liu Xiao-hua; Kang Liu-jiang;
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作者单位

Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China;

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1. Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network [J] . Neng-puYang, MeiHan, Shi-yongChen, Mathematical Problems in Engineering: Theory, Methods and Applications . 2015,第2期

机译：基于改进的Buckley决策和贝叶斯网络的评估方法研究
2. A Methodology for Measuring Sustainability of Dry Ports Location Based on Bayesian Networks and Multi-criteria Decision Analysis [J] . Samir Awad-Nú?ez, Nicoletta González-Cancelas, Francisco Soler-Flores, Transportation Research Procedia . 2016,第15期

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3. Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): Bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination. [J] . Biedermann A, Taroni F, Bozza S, Forensic science international . 2011,第1a3期

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5. Multi-Objective Design Methodology using Decision & Causal Bayesian Belief Networks for Complex Data Centers focused on Risk and Cost. [D] . Patel, Jayneel Jaydev. 2014

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6. A comparison of Monte Carlo-based Bayesian parameter estimation methods for stochastic models of genetic networks [O] . Inés P. Mariño, Alexey Zaikin, Joaquín Míguez -1

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7. Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network [O] . Neng-pu Yang, Mei Han, Shi-yong Chen, 2015

机译：基于改进的铲斗决策和贝叶斯网络的评估方法研究

Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

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