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Microstructure Models with Short-Term Inertia and Stochastic Volatility

机译:具有短期惯性和随机波动性的微观结构模型

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摘要

Partially observed microstructure models, containing stochastic volatility, dynamic trading noise, and short-term inertia, are introduced to address the following questions: (1) Do the observed prices exhibit statistically significant inertia? (2) Is stochastic volatility (SV) still evident in the presence of dynamical trading noise? (3) If stochastic volatility and trading noise are present, which SV model matches the observed price data best? Bayes factor methods are used to answer these questions with real data and this allows us to consider volatility models with very different structures. Nonlinear filtering techniques are utilized to compute the Bayes factor on tick-by-tick data and to estimate the unknown parameters. It is shown that our price data sets all exhibit strong evidence of both inertia and Heston-type stochastic volatility.
机译:引入了部分观察到的微观结构模型,其中包含随机波动性,动态交易噪声和短期惯性,以解决以下问题:(1)观察到的价格是否具有统计上显着的惯性? (2)在存在动态交易噪声的情况下,随机波动率(SV)是否仍然明显? (3)如果存在随机波动和交易噪音,哪种SV模型最符合观察到的价格数据?贝叶斯因子方法用于用真实数据回答这些问题,这使我们能够考虑结构非常不同的波动率模型。非线性滤波技术被用来计算逐笔数据的贝叶斯因子并估计未知参数。结果表明,我们的价格数据集都充分显示出惯性和Heston型随机波动率。

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