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Measuring Service Reliability Using Automatic Vehicle Location Data

机译：使用自动车辆位置数据测量服务可靠性

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摘要

Bus service reliability has become a major concern for both operators and passengers. Buffer time measures are believed to be appropriate to approximate passengers' experienced reliability in the context of departure planning. Two issues with regard to buffer time estimation are addressed, namely, performance disaggregation and capturing passengers' perspectives on reliability. A Gaussian mixture models based method is applied to disaggregate the performance data. Based on the mixture models distribution, a reliability buffer time (RBT) measure is proposed from passengers' perspective. A set of expected reliability buffer time measures is developed for operators by using different spatial-temporal levels combinations of RBTs. The average and the latest trip duration measures are proposed for passengers that can be used to choose a service mode and determine the departure time. Using empirical data from the automatic vehicle location system in Brisbane, Australia, the existence of mixture service states is verified and the advantage of mixture distribution model in fitting travel time profile is demonstrated. Numerical experiments validate that the proposed reliability measure is capable of quantifying service reliability consistently, while the conventional ones may provide inconsistent results. Potential applications for operators and passengers are also illustrated, including reliability improvement and trip planning.
机译：公交服务的可靠性已经成为运营商和乘客的主要关注点。据认为，在出发计划的背景下，缓冲时间措施适合于估计乘客的体验可靠​​性。解决了有关缓冲时间估计的两个问题，即性能分解和捕获乘客对可靠性的看法。应用基于高斯混合模型的方法来分解性能数据。基于混合模型的分布，从乘客的角度提出了可靠性缓冲时间（RBT）的措施。通过使用RBT的不同时空水平组合，为操作人员开发了一套预期的可靠性缓冲时间度量。提出了针对旅客的平均旅行时间和最新旅行时间的度量，可用于选择服务模式并确定出发时间。利用来自澳大利亚布里斯班的自动车辆定位系统的经验数据，验证了混合服务状态的存在，并证明了混合分布模型在拟合行驶时间曲线中的优势。数值实验验证了所提出的可靠性测度能够一致地量化服务可靠性，而常规测度可能会提供不一致的结果。还说明了操作员和乘客的潜在应用，包括可靠性改进和行程计划。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2014年第8期|468563.1-468563.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Zhenliang Ma; Luis Ferreira; Mahmoud Mesbah;

  • 作者单位

    School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia;

    School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia;

    School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia;

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