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Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River

机译：淮河上游集水区降水变化趋势分析

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摘要

We analyzed the variation trends in precipitation according to the observed data in the Shaying River catchment, upstream of the Huai River from 1951 to 2010, using the linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test. Further study was made by introducing R/S analysis, and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated to predict the future trends of rainfall. The results suggested that the changing trends in precipitation for different time series in the whole catchment were relatively complex and not obvious. The annual precipitation showed a slightly increasing trend over the past 60 years, and in the future it would be antipersistent. For the 38 rainfall stations, the trends in spring and autumn precipitation time series were mostly negative; on the contrary, the trends in summer and winter were mostly positive. The results also indicated that the annual precipitation series showed positive trends in the northern region and negative trends in the southern region. Moreover, the relationships of H-Z and H-β of the 38 stations were analyzed. The results indicated that the greater the absolute values of Z the stronger the persistent nature. Meanwhile, for most of the H values were close to 0.5, the randomness of the future trends could not be ignored.
机译：我们使用线性回归方法和Mann-Kendall检验，根据1951年至2010年淮河上游的沙ying河流域的观测数据，分析了降水的变化趋势。通过引入R / S分析进行了进一步研究，并估计了相应的Hurst指数以预测降雨的未来趋势。结果表明，整个流域不同时间序列的降水变化趋势相对复杂，且不明显。在过去的60年中，年降水量显示出略有增加的趋势，并且在将来它将是持久的。对于38个降雨站，春季和秋季降水时间序列的趋势大部分为负。相反，夏季和冬季的趋势大多是积极的。结果还表明，年降水量序列在北部地区呈正趋势，在南部地区呈负趋势。此外，分析了38个站点的H-Z和H-β之间的关系。结果表明，Z的绝对值越大，持久性越强。同时，由于大多数H值都接近0.5，所以不能忽略未来趋势的随机性。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2013年第3期|929383.1-929383.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Peng Shi; Xinxin Ma; Xi Chen; Simin Qu; Zhicai Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

    College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

    College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

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