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A Novel Evaluation Model for Hybrid Power System Based on Vague Set and Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory

机译：基于Vague集和Dempster-Shafer证据理论的混合动力系统评估模型

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摘要

Because clean energy and traditional energy have different advantages and disadvantages, it is of great significance to evaluate comprehensive benefits for hybrid power systems. Based on thorough analysis of important characters on hybrid power systems, an index system including security, economic benefit, environmental benefit, and social benefit is established in this paper. Due to advantages of processing abundant uncertain and fuzzy information, vague set is used to determine the decision matrix. Convert vague decision matrix to real one by vague combination ruleand determine uncertain degrees of different indexes by grey incidence analysis, then the mass functions of different comment set in different indexes are obtained. Information can be fused in accordance with Dempster-Shafer (D-S) combination rule and the evaluation result is got by vague set and D-S evidence theory. A simulation of hybrid power system including thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic power in China is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed design scheme. It can be clearly seen that the uncertainties in decision making can be dramatically decreased compared with existing methods in the literature. The actual implementation results illustrate that the proposed index system and evaluation model based on vague set and D-S evidence theory are effective and practical to evaluate comprehensive benefit of hybrid power system.
机译：由于清洁能源和传统能源各有优缺点，因此评估混合动力系统的综合效益具有重要意义。在全面分析混合动力系统重要特征的基础上，建立了包括安全性，经济效益，环境效益和社会效益的指标体系。由于处理大量不确定和模糊信息的优势，因此使用vague集确定决策矩阵。通过模糊组合规则将模糊决策矩阵转化为实数决策矩阵，并通过灰色关联度分析确定不同指标的不确定度，得到不同指标下不同注释集的质量函数。可以根据Dempster-Shafer（D-S）组合规则融合信息，并通过Vague集和D-S证据理论获得评估结果。对包括火电，风电和光伏发电在内的混合动力系统进行了仿真，以证明所提出的设计方案的有效性和潜力。可以清楚地看到，与文献中的现有方法相比，决策中的不确定性可以大大降低。实际实施结果表明，所提出的基于模糊集和D-S证据理论的指标体系和评价模型是评价混合动力系统综合效益的有效方法。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2012年第10期|784389.1-784389.12|共12页
  • 作者

    Dongxiao Niu; Yanan Wei; Yan Shi; Hamid Reza Karimi;

  • 作者单位

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;

    School of Industrial Engineering, Tokai University, Kumamoto 862-8652, Japan;

    Department of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Science, University of Agder, 4898 Grimstad, Norway;

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