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System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

机译：里约热内卢登革热发病率的系统识别和预测

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摘要

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S→I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining C A and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.
机译：无论系统的性质如何，系统的识别，预测和控制都是工程主题。在此，使用2007年在巴西里约热内卢市记录的每周登革热人数的时间变化来识别SIS（易感性感染）和SIR（易感性感染去除）模型根据细胞自动机（CA）制定。在识别过程中，利用遗传算法（GA）查找状态转换S→I的概率，该概率能够在CA格子中再现2007年的历史序列。这些概率取决于感染邻居的数量。考虑时变和非时变概率，三种不同大小的晶格以及单元之间的两种耦合拓扑。然后，将这些通过C A和GA组合建立的流行病学模型用于预测2008年的病人病例。这些模型可用于预测和控制这种传染病的传播。

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  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2011年第2期|p.1-13|共13页
  • 作者

    D. O. Gerardi; L. H. A. Monteiro;

  • 作者单位

    Escola de Engenharia, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Rua da Consolacao 896, 01302-907 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil;

    Escola de Engenharia, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Rua da Consolacao 896, 01302-907 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil,Departamento de Engenharia de Telecomunicacoes e Controle, Escola Politecnica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Avenida Professor Luciano Gualberto, Travessa 3 380, 05508-900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil;

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