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Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

机译：使用可见性图和水平可见性预测非自治网络的灾难

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摘要

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.
机译：预测工程系统中的潜在灾难是一个具有挑战性的问题。我们首先尝试构建一个复杂的网络，以在多模块化浮动系统发生灾难之前对其进行预测。通过使用可见性图或水平可见性算法，可以将系统的响应时间序列映射到虚拟网络中。网络的拓扑特征可用于预测系统的灾难。数值结果表明，拓扑特征的变化与突变的发生之间存在明显的对应关系。提出将巨灾指数（CI）作为数字指标，以衡量从稳定状态到巨灾状态的质变。通过在不同数据长度和采样频率的可靠性分析中使用索引来比较可见性图和水平可见性算法这两种方法。虚拟网络方法的技术可能会扩展到其他工程系统的灾难预测。

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