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Robustness of structural reliability analyses to epistemic uncertainties

机译：结构可靠性分析对不确定性的鲁棒性

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摘要

Methods for the robust design of mechanical systems have the objective to reduce the variability in system performance with respect to uncertainties in the material and geometrical properties of a mechanical structure as well as in its interactions with its environment. Two types of uncertainty are encountered in practice, namely aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Aleatory uncertainty is generally considered to be irreducible and results from statistical variations in the physical properties of components and interfaces. Epistemic uncertainties are due to a lack of accurate knowledge concerning the physical laws governing the behavior of a component or interface and can generally be reduced with a combination of more detailed modeling and experimental investigations. Epistemic uncertainties can be difficult to characterize due to simplifications in geometric and material field properties, and as such are rarely taken into account explicitly in reliability analysis. In the present work, we propose to examine the robustness of a classical reliability analysis with respect to both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The latter will be represented using a non-parametric approach in order to avoid a detailed characterization of the lack of knowledge present in the system. This then allows us to study in detail how the results of the reliability analysis vary as a function of the degree of lack of knowledge. The proposed methodology is illustrated using numerical simulations.
机译：机械系统的稳健设计方法的目的是，减少机械性能的不确定性，包括机械结构的材料和几何特性以及与环境之间相互作用的不确定性。在实践中会遇到两种不确定性，即偶然性和认知不确定性。通常认为通气不确定性是不可减少的，并且是由于组件和界面的物理属性的统计变化所致。认识论上的不确定性是由于缺乏有关控制组件或界面行为的物理定律的准确知识，通常可以通过更详细的建模和实验研究相结合来减少。由于几何和材料场属性的简化，难以确定认知不确定性，因此在可靠性分析中很少明确考虑这些不确定性。在目前的工作中，我们建议针对经典不确定性和认知不确定性检查经典可靠性分析的鲁棒性。后者将使用非参数方法表示，以避免系统中缺乏知识的详细表征。然后，这使我们可以详细研究可靠性分析的结果如何随缺乏知识的程度而变化。使用数值模拟说明了所提出的方法。

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  • 来源
    《Mechanical systems and signal processing》 |2012年第4期|p.458-469|共12页
  • 作者

    M. Guedri; S. Cogan; N. Bouhaddi;

  • 作者单位

    Preparatory Engineering Institute of Nabeul (IPEIN), 8000 M'rezgua, Nabeul, Tunisia;

    FEMTO-ST Institute UMR 6174 -Applied Mechanics Laboratory R. Chaleat, University of Franche-Comte, 24 Chemin de I'Epitaphe, 25000 Besancon, France;

    FEMTO-ST Institute UMR 6174 -Applied Mechanics Laboratory R. Chaleat, University of Franche-Comte, 24 Chemin de I'Epitaphe, 25000 Besancon, France;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; reliability; robustness;

    机译：不确定的不确定性;认知不确定性;可靠性;健壮性;

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