Can monetary policy survive policy model mis-specification? Model uncertainty and the perils of 'policy model complacency'

Setterfield Mark

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Can monetary policy survive policy model mis-specification? Model uncertainty and the perils of 'policy model complacency'

机译：货币政策能否幸免于政策模型错误指定？模型的不确定性和“政策模型自满”的危险

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The question addressed in this paper is: can monetary policy succeed in stabilizing the economy even when the policy model on which it is predicated is mis-specified? Using variants of the 3-equation macroeconomic model, it is shown that this question can be answered in the affirmative. The purpose of the paper is not to encourage indifference toward model uncertainty, however, but rather to warn against the perils of policy model complacency. This arises if the success of policy is misinterpreted as successful understanding of the workings of the economy, which makes the policy maker vulnerable to surprises: events with systematic origins in the true model of the economy that are not anticipated by the (mis-specified) policy model. To safeguard against this problem, policy makers should always entertain eclectic views of the workings of the economy. This task is easily accomplished by paying attention to heterodox macroeconomics, which frequently makes predictions that are very much at variance with those of the dominant policy model.

机译：本文所要解决的问题是：即使以错误的货币政策为基础，货币政策能否成功地稳定经济？使用3-等值宏观经济模型的变体，可以肯定地回答这个问题。本文的目的不是鼓励对模型不确定性的漠不关心，而是警告政策模型自满的危险。如果将政策的成功误解为对经济运作的成功理解，就会出现这种情况，这会使决策者容易受到意外的影响：（错误指定的）经济活动的真实源于系统的真实原因政策模型。为了保护这一问题，政策制定者应始终对经济运作保持折衷态度。通过关注异常宏观经济学，可以轻松地完成此任务，后者经常做出与主导政策模型的预测相差很大的预测。

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《Metroeconomica》 |2018年第1期|2-15|共14页
作者
Setterfield Mark;
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New Sch Social Res, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10011 USA;

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机译：具有错误指定模型的稳健货币政策：模型不确定性是否总是会导致减弱政策

Can monetary policy survive policy model mis-specification? Model uncertainty and the perils of 'policy model complacency'

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