Why Have US Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?

Gu Gyun Cheol

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Why Have US Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?

机译：为什么美国价格变得不受经济周期影响？

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This article analyzes the issue of price cyclicality from a Post Keynesian perspective. It shows that there are two key factors at the center of the mechanism for the sudden U.S. transition from counter-cyclical to a-cyclical price movement in the early 1980s. First, the cost pass-through policy has been changed to ensure that the cyclical changes of input prices and/or labor productivity are absorbed more thoroughly and are thus reflected more frequently in profit markups than occurred prior to 1984. This relatively increased adaptability of the profit markups in the aggregate sense between the pricing periods cushions the direct effect of cyclical changes in the cost base on price cyclicality. Second, a structural change in the U.S. labor productivity's cyclical property has generated cost-base stability during the post-1984 period. Declines in hiring and firing costs and cutbacks in social security benefits have led the labor discipline effect to dominate the labor hoarding effect. This has allowed labor productivity to increase as the unemployment rate rises; thus, the cost base cyclicality has weakened, and prices have become less cyclical since 1984.

机译：本文从后凯恩斯主义的角度分析了价格周期性的问题。它表明，在1980年代初美国突然从反周期向非周期价格运动过渡的机制的中心有两个关键因素。首先，成本传递政策已进行更改，以确保与1984年之前相比，能够更全面地吸收投入价格和/或劳动生产率的周期性变化，并因此更频繁地反映在利润增加中。定价期之间总体上的利润加价缓冲了基于价格周期性的成本周期性变化的直接影响。其次，在1984年后时期，美国劳动生产率的周期性特征发生了结构性变化，从而产生了成本基础的稳定性。雇用和解雇成本的下降以及社会保障福利的减少导致劳动纪律效应主导了劳动ho积效应。随着失业率的上升，劳动生产率得以提高；因此，自1984年以来，成本基础的周期性已经减弱，价格的周期性也有所降低。

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来源
《Metroeconomica》 |2015年第4期|661-685|共25页
作者
Gu Gyun Cheol;
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Korea Inst Local Finance, Dept Econ, Seoul, South Korea;

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Why Have US Prices Become Independent of Business Cycles?

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