ECONOMIC CRISES, HOUSING PRICE BUBBLES AND SADDLE-POINT ECONOMICS

Thomas Christiaans

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ECONOMIC CRISES, HOUSING PRICE BUBBLES AND SADDLE-POINT ECONOMICS

机译：经济危机，住房价格泡沫和鞍点经济

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Starting from the recent financial and economic crisis the standard interpretation of rational expectations and optimal control dynamic models is called into question referring to its lack of robustness. Using the example of the housing market it is shown that an alternative interpretation closer to the mathematical basics would imply economies much more crisis-prone than they actually are. Market frictions reduce chances for bubbles and should be taken into consideration in positive as well as in normative economics. Dynamic models in a neoclassical spirit can explain reality only with frictions, and increasing frictions may sometimes be a reasonable stabilizing instrument of economic policy.

机译：从最近的金融和经济危机开始，理性预期和最优控制动态模型的标准解释因缺乏鲁棒性而受到质疑。以住房市场为例，它表明，更接近数学基础的另一种解释将意味着经济比实际情况更容易发生危机。市场摩擦减少了泡沫的可能性，因此在积极经济学和规范经济学中都应予以考虑。新古典主义精神中的动态模型只能用摩擦来解释现实，而增加摩擦有时可能是经济政策的合理稳定工具。

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《Metroeconomica》 |2013年第1期|197-214|共18页
作者
Thomas Christiaans;
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Department of Economics FOM University of Applied Sciences Birlenbacher Strasse 18 57078 Siegen Germany;

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ECONOMIC CRISES, HOUSING PRICE BUBBLES AND SADDLE-POINT ECONOMICS

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