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首页> 外文期刊>Michigan Academician >The First Years of Term Limits: An Initial Analysis of the Effects on the Michigan House of Representatives
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The First Years of Term Limits: An Initial Analysis of the Effects on the Michigan House of Representatives

机译：任期限制的头几年：对密歇根州众议院影响的初步分析

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摘要

In response to complaints about unbeatable incumbents, sixteen states now have some form of term limit legislation. Among the claims of term limit proponents is that by largely removing the power of incumbency and essentially leveling the playing field, elections will be more competitive. Through a comparative analysis of the 1990, 1998, 2000, and 2002 elections for the Michigan House of Representatives, this study provides an initial look at elections within Michigan and shows that the effects of term limits on election competitiveness thus far are ambiguous. Competition was enhanced during the 1998 election due to the large number of vacated term-limited seats, yet in 2000 competition levels returned to normal. In fact, when measured by the number of uncontested elections, competition for office was reduced during the primaries to a level below the 1990 election. The 2002 election muddies the water even more. There the general election figures indicate little overall change in competitiveness, while the primary election shows an increase of competitiveness for open seats coupled with an increase in uncontested elections involving incumbents. In essence, this study suggests that once every six years Michigan citizens can expect to see a competitive race (during the primaries) in their individual House district. Between those years competition will decline as strong challengers wait for the incumbent to step down.
机译：为了回应有关无与伦比的现任者的投诉，现在有十六个州制定了某种形式的期限限制立法。任期限制的支持者声称，通过在很大程度上消除现任权力并从根本上平衡竞争环境，选举将更具竞争力。通过对密歇根州众议院1990年，1998年，2000年和2002年选举的比较分析，本研究对密歇根州内的选举进行了初步考察，并显示迄今为止任期限制对选举竞争力的影响尚不明确。由于大量空缺的有期限的席位，在1998年大选中竞争加剧，而在2000年，竞争水平恢复正常。实际上，用无争议的选举次数来衡量，初选期间的竞选竞争减少到1990年选举以下的水平。 2002年的选举更加使水更加混乱。那里的大选数字表明总体竞争力变化不大，而初选显示公开席位的竞争力增强，而涉及在位者的无争议选举的数量增加。从本质上讲，这项研究表明，密歇根州的公民每隔六年就会在自己的众议院地区看到一场竞赛比赛（初选期间）。在这些年之间，竞争将下降，因为强大的挑战者会等待现任领导人下台。

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