Thtoughout the fall of 2009, politicians and military strategists debated the situation in Afghanistan to determine the probability of success for the NATO mission. While the accuracy of their conclusions is not yet known, the process they used to determine the probability is very informative. This method is not dissimilar to the decision making process used by tactical military commanders. Both the strategic analysts and the tactical commanders choose data points that allow them to measure the effectiveness of their respective plans.
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