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What to Watch for in 2012

机译：2012年值得关注的内容

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The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have drained the participating nations' budgets and exposed a relative helplessness of the western alliances and particularly the allied superpower, NATO. Critics are now seeing NATO as another declining power of the Cold War era. NATO's dependence on the Eurasian mainland is now clear enough; however, whatever "agreements" are reached with the Afghan government, the future in that country will not be Western. Over the last decade, NATO has been taught a repetitive lesson when it comes to ground wars on the Eurasian mainland: don't launch them! (as has its once perennial enemy did in the 80s) The disaster of another impending Superpower defeat this time around could not be more obvious. The only question that remains is just how humiliating the coming retreat from Afghanistan will turn out to be. The longer NATO stays, the more eviscerating the effect on its power. All of this hardly needs to be said, and yet as 2012 begins it is painfully clear that any participating NATO nation will be incapable - either politically, militarily or financially - of ending the Afghan War any time soon.
机译：伊拉克和阿富汗的战争耗尽了参加国的预算，暴露了西方同盟尤其是盟国北约的相对无助。评论家现在将北约视为冷战时代的另一个衰落力量。北约对欧亚大陆的依赖现在已经很清楚了。但是，无论与阿富汗政府达成什么“协议”，阿富汗的未来都不会是西方的。在过去的十年中，北约在与欧亚大陆的地面战争有关的课程中反复学习：不要发动战争！ （就像它曾经的长期敌人在80年代所做的那样）这次即将到来的超级大国失败的灾难再明显不过了。唯一剩下的问题是，即将从阿富汗撤退的结果将是多么令人羞辱。北约停留的时间越长，对其权力的影响就越明显。几乎不需要说所有这些话，然而，在2012年开始之际，令人痛苦的是，任何一个北约参与国都将无能力（无论从政治上，军事上还是在财政上）尽快结束阿富汗战争。

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