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The economics of wishful thinking and the adventures of rationality

机译：一厢情愿的经济学和理性的冒险

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Replying to Queen Elizabeth Ⅱ who in November 2008 asked why so few economists had warned about the emerging financial crisis, a group of eminent economists of the British Academy, claimed that while this failure had many causes, the most important was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, to understand the risks to the system as a whole. The paper suggests that this failure is due also to the still heavy influence of the paradigm of rational expectations, that did not provide the intellectual tools to grasp the signs of the impending financial crisis. The paper explores the development of Muth's rational expectations hypothesis and the parallel development of Simon's idea of bounded rationality-two opposite views about economic behavior that originated in the same context, during the early 1960s at Carnegie Mellon. It is shown that the latter, while marginalized for decades from the core economic ideas, generated a wide development in cognitive psychology, problem solving and experimental economics that grew up in the last decades and now permit a more profound analysis of human behavior in economic and organizational contexts, that can be the seed of a new thinking in economics. The challenge for economists is to use this new toolbox to incorporate in their models real human behaviors, getting out from the economy of wishful thinking.
机译：英国女王伊丽莎白二世在2008年11月对女王伊丽莎白二世（Queen ElizabethⅡ）进行了回答，他问为什么很少有经济学家对即将出现的金融危机发出警告。许多聪明人的集体想象力，以了解整个系统的风险。该论文认为，这种失败也是由于理性预期范式的巨大影响，而理性预期范式的影响仍然很大，而理性预期范式并未提供理智的工具来把握即将来临的金融危机的迹象。本文探讨了穆思的理性预期假说的发展和西蒙的有限理性思想的平行发展——1960年代初期在卡内基梅隆大学，两种对经济行为的相反观点起源于同一背景。结果表明，后者虽然在核心经济思想中被边缘化了数十年，但在认知心理学，解决问题和实验经济学方面产生了广泛的发展，这种发展在最近几十年中得到了发展，现在可以对人类在经济和经济方面的行为进行更深入的分析。组织环境，这可以成为经济学新思维的种子。对于经济学家来说，挑战是使用这个新工具箱将真实的人类行为纳入他们的模型，从而摆脱一厢情愿的想法。

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