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Statistical models to estimate male-to-female HIV transmission probabilities

机译：统计模型估计男女之间的HIV传播概率

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摘要

To develop effective public-health intervention strategies for preventing person-to-person disease transmission, it is extremely essential to know the underlying biological processes and the probability of transmission. However, it is unethical to design studies to estimate the probability of person-to-person disease transmission because such studies would involve infecting an uninfected person with a disease. Statistical modeling is a very important technique used to estimate disease transmission probabilities among individuals. By using data from different independent studies, researchers may be able to obtain enough information about an infected person's infectiousness and the susceptibility of an uninfected person to estimate disease transmission probabilities. In this paper, we developed a statistical modeling technique to estimate probabilities of person-to-person disease transmission from an infected to an uninfected person. We used this new modeling technique to estimate the probability of male-to-female, penile - vaginal human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in one sexual contact. We developed two different sets of male-to-female HIV transmission probability estimates for different infectiousness and susceptibility values using two models. This newly developed modeling technique can be used to estimate person-to-person transmission probabilities for different diseases and routes of transmission.
机译：为了制定有效的公共卫生干预策略以防止人与人之间的疾病传播，了解潜在的生物学过程和传播可能性极为重要。但是，设计研究来估计人与人之间疾病传播的可能性是不道德的，因为这样的研究将涉及用疾病感染未感染的人。统计建模是一种非常重要的技术，用于估计个体之间的疾病传播概率。通过使用来自不同独立研究的数据，研究人员可能能够获得有关感染者的传染性和未感染者的易感性的足够信息，以估计疾病传播的可能性。在本文中，我们开发了一种统计建模技术来估计从感染者到未感染者的人际传播疾病的可能性。我们使用这种新的建模技术来估计一次性接触中男性对女性，阴茎-阴道人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）传播的可能性。我们使用两个模型针对不同的传染性和药敏性值开发了两组不同的男女间艾滋病毒传播概率估计值。这种新开发的建模技术可用于估计不同疾病和传播途径的人对人传播概率。

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