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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards Review >A GIS-Based Model for Integrating Risk Estimations of Residential Building Damage and Shelter Capacity in the Case of Earthquakes
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A GIS-Based Model for Integrating Risk Estimations of Residential Building Damage and Shelter Capacity in the Case of Earthquakes

机译：基于GIS的地震下住宅建筑破坏和住房容量风险评估的综合模型。

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摘要

This research aims at developing a geographic information system (GIS)-based model for integrating risk estimation for residential building damage with risk estimation for shelter capacity by number of evacuees. The former aims at predicting the number of buildings damaged by an earthquake, while the latter refers to whether each evacuation center (henceforth: shelter) has sufficient accommodation for evacuees through a simulated evacuation following an earthquake. The evacuee number, which is predicted by reference to damaged buildings and building population, is used as input data for estimating risk in relation to shelter capacity. That is, the output of risk estimation for residential building damage is an input for shelter capacity risk estimation. By making this integration, the proposed model can supply an integrated information flow for prediction, preparedness, and response in relation to potential earthquake disasters by offering, inter alia, predictions of seismic intensity, forecasts of building damage and evacuees, models of how residents move to evacuation shelters following earthquakes (evacuation simulations), and data on shelters with insufficient capacity (shelter capacity estimation). Moreover, this research also proposes a method for allocating residents to each building based on building floor area and the total population of each chome (or city district, a common administrative unit in Japan). The number of residents in each building depends on the building floor area and varies within each chome. This method of estimation differs from the average building population used in the literature, which assumes that the number of residents per building is constant throughout a chome. Furthermore, identifying the number of residents in each house or building makes it easier to predict the number of evacuees in each evacuation shelter through an evacuation simulation routing residents from their homes to the nearest shelters. The number of evacuees per shelter is then used to estimate risk in relation to shelter capacity by comparing it with the planned capacity of that shelter.
机译：这项研究的目的是开发一种基于地理信息系统（GIS）的模型，该模型将按房屋数量划分的住宅建筑物损坏风险估计与住房容量风险估计相结合。前者旨在预测地震破坏的建筑物的数量，而后者则是指每个避难中心（以下简称避难所）是否有足够的空间通过地震后的模拟疏散来疏散被疏散者。通过参考受损建筑物和建筑物人口来预测撤离人数，将其用作输入数据，以估计与避难所容量有关的风险。即，对住宅建筑物破坏的风险估计的输出是对住房能力风险估计的输入。通过进行这种集成，所提出的模型可以提供有关预测，准备和对潜在地震灾害的响应的综合信息流，其中包括提供地震烈度的预测，建筑物损坏和撤离的预测，居民的移动方式等。地震后撤离避难所（疏散模拟）和容量不足的避难所数据（避难所容量估算）。此外，本研究还提出了一种根据建筑物的建筑面积和每个区域（或市区，日本的一个公共行政单位）的总人口将居民分配到每个建筑物的方法。每个建筑物中的居民数量取决于建筑物的建筑面积，并且在每个区域内都不同。这种估计方法不同于文献中使用的平均建筑物人口，后者假设每个建筑物的居民人数在整个时间段内都是恒定的。此外，识别每个房屋或建筑物中的居民数量，可以更容易地通过将居民从其房屋路由到最近的避难所的疏散模拟来预测每个避难所中的疏散人数。然后，通过将每个避难所的疏散人数与该避难所的计划容量进行比较，来估算与避难所容量有关的风险。

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  • 来源
    《Natural Hazards Review》 |2020年第2期|04019016.1-04019016.13|共13页
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  • 作者单位

    Vietnam Natl Univ Ho Chi Minh City Univ Sci Fac Geol Dept Hydrogeol & Engn Geol 227 Nguyen Van Cu St Ward 4 Dist 5 Ho Chi Minh City 700000 Vietnam;

    Kanazawa Univ Inst Sci & Engn Fac Geosci & Civil Engn Kanazawa Ishikawa 9201192 Japan;

    Gifu Kyoritsu Keizai Univ Fac Informat Media Business Adm 5-50 Kitagata Cho Ogaki Gifu 5038550 Japan;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Seismic intensity simulation; Vulnerability functions; Building population; Evacuation simulation; Network analysis;

    机译：地震烈度模拟;漏洞功能;建筑人口;疏散模拟;网络分析;

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