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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards Review >Development of Residential Building Stock and Population Databases and Modeling the Residential Occupancy Rate for Iran
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Development of Residential Building Stock and Population Databases and Modeling the Residential Occupancy Rate for Iran

机译：伊朗居民住房存量和人口数据库的开发以及居住率的建模

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摘要

Seismic risk mitigation planning relies on the assessment of possible losses because of destructive scenario earthquakes. In turn, realistic risk assessment procedures must be supported by an adequate element at risk data sets. In this research, two major investigations in Iran examine (1) the development and augmentation of fine resolution population and building databases through data fusion and modeling, and (2) the derivation of the residential occupancy rate for a 24-h period for a normal working day in large cities. The basic population and building data sources are obtained from the national census program, which exhibits very limited spatial details. A fine resolution global dataset is fused together with the census data to gain much detailed spatial information. The residential occupancy modeling is completed according to the distribution of the residential population during normal working days. The empirical modeling was completed using two sets of temporal data for both census and traffic for Tehran, Iran. The traffic data sets were the result of 60,000 survey forms, which were filled out by residents. To apply the process for different large cities in Iran, semiempirical population modeling is proposed. The findings are compared with a global model and show that for time ranges from early morning until 10:00 a.m. and also from 10:00 p.m. until midnight, the relative differences are noticeable and mainly above 22%. Also, from 10:00 a.m. until 10:00 p.m., all models match reasonably well.
机译：减轻地震风险的计划取决于对破坏性情景地震可能造成的损失的评估。反过来，在风险数据集上必须有足够的要素来支持现实的风险评估程序。在这项研究中，伊朗的两项重大调查研究（1）通过数据融合和建模开发和提高高分辨率人口和建筑数据库，以及（2）推算正常情况下24小时内的居住率大城市的工作日。基本人口和建筑数据来源是从国家人口普查计划获得的，该计划的空间细节非常有限。将高分辨率的全球数据集与普查数据融合在一起，以获得更详细的空间信息。根据正常工作日中居民人口的分布情况，完成了居住人数建模。使用两组用于伊朗德黑兰的人口普查和交通流量的时态数据完成了经验建模。交通数据集是由居民填写的6万份调查表的结果。为了将该过程应用于伊朗不同的大城市，提出了半经验人口模型。将调查结果与全球模型进行比较，结果显示时间范围从清晨到上午10:00，以及下午10:00。直到午夜，相对差异明显，且主要在22％以上。另外，从上午10:00到下午10:00，所有型号的搭配都相当合理。

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