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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards Review >Integrated Risk Assessment for the Natomas Basin (California) Analysis of Loss of Life and Emergency Management for Floods
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Integrated Risk Assessment for the Natomas Basin (California) Analysis of Loss of Life and Emergency Management for Floods

机译：纳托马斯盆地（加利福尼亚州）的综合风险评估，水灾损失分析和应急管理

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摘要

This article assesses the risk to life for the Natomas Basin, a low-lying, rapidly urbanizing region in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. Using an empirical method, the loss of life is determined for a flood (high water), seismic, and sunny-day levee breach scenario. The analysis indicated that more than 1,000 fatalities may occur in the flood scenario and that there is a high flood risk compared with similar systems (e.g., dams in the United States and flood-prone areas in the Netherlands). Findings show that the risk to life highly depends on evacuation effectiveness. The evacuation and emergency management (EEM) system was further analyzed through interviews with regional emergency managers and training exercise evaluation reports. Using an analytic framework, critical factors that affect the EEM system performance and reliability were identified. Results indicate a need to assess the EEM system performance to improve preparedness and reduce the risk to life. Findings from the investigation contribute to more integrated risk analyses of both the technical and management components for engineered systems.
机译：本文评估了纳托马斯盆地的生命危险，这是加利福尼亚萨克拉曼多-圣华金三角洲一个地势低洼，快速城市化的地区。使用经验方法，确定洪水（高水位），地震和晴天堤防破坏情况下的人员伤亡。分析表明，在洪灾情况下可能发生1000多人死亡，与类似系统（例如美国的水坝和荷兰的洪灾易发地区）相比，洪灾风险较高。研究结果表明，生命危险很大程度上取决于疏散效果。疏散和应急管理（EEM）系统通过与地区应急经理的访谈和培训演习评估报告得到了进一步分析。使用分析框架，确定了影响EEM系统性能和可靠性的关键因素。结果表明需要评估EEM系统的性能，以提高准备水平并降低生命危险。调查的结果有助于对工程系统的技术和管理组件进行更综合的风险分析。

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  • 来源
    《Natural Hazards Review》 |2012年第4期|p.297-309|共13页
  • 作者

    Sebastiaan N. Jonkman; Lynn A. Hiel; Robert G. Bea; Howard Foster; Alexandra Tsioulou; Paz Arroyo; Tracy Stallard; Lyndsie Harris;

  • 作者单位

    Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft Univ., Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, Netherlands, and Royal Has- koning, Rotterdam, Netherlands;

    Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California- Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley, 212 McLaughlin Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712;

    Geographical Information Science Center, Univ. of California- Berkeley, 412 Wurster Hall, 1839, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720;

    Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    floods; fatalities; emergency services; evacuation; risk management; deltas; levee failures; emergency management; natomas basin;

    机译：洪水死亡人数紧急服务;疏散;风险管理;三角洲堤防故障;应急管理;纳托马斯盆地;

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