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Earthquake Impact Scale

机译：地震影响量表

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摘要

With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should also be both specific (although allowably uncertain) and actionable. In this analysis, an attempt is made at both simple and intuitive color-coded alerting criteria; yet the necessary uncertainty measures by which one can gauge the likelihood for the alert to be over- or underestimated are preserved. The essence of the proposed impact scale and alerting is that actionable loss information is now available in the immediate aftermath of significant earthquakes worldwide on the basis of quantifiable loss estimates. Utilizing EIS, PAGER's rapid loss estimates can adequately recommend alert levels and suggest appropriate response protocols, despite the uncertainties; demanding or awaiting observations or loss estimates with a high level of accuracy may increase the losses.
机译：随着USGS迅速评估全球地震响应评估（PAGER）系统的出现，该系统可以快速评估地震影响，美国和国际地震响应者正在重新考虑其自动警报和激活级别以及响应程序。为了帮助促进快速和适当的地震响应，在两个补充标准的基础上提出了地震影响量表（EIS）。根据估计的损失成本，一种最适合家庭事件。另一方面，根据估计的死亡人数范围，通常更适合于全球性事件，特别是在发展中国家。通过对过去地震影响和相关响应水平进行系统分析得出的简单阈值，在通过绿色（很少或没有影响），黄色（区域影响和响应），橙色警报发出事件后，可以非常有效地传达预期的影响和响应。 （国家级影响和响应），红色（国际响应）。黄色，橙色和红色警报级别的相应死亡阈值分别为1、100和1,000。对于损害影响，黄色，橙色和红色阈值分别由估计损失分别达到$ 1M，$ 100M和$ 1B触发。采取双重地震预警方法的基本原理是由于人们认识到，相对较高的死亡，受伤和无家可归者在一些国家中占主导地位，在这些国家中，本地建筑实践通常会导致高倒塌和人员伤亡，这些影响使国际应对工作成为当务之急。相反，在普遍抗震建筑实践大大减少建筑倒塌和死亡人数的地区或国家，财务和整体社会影响通常会触发响应水平。任何新设计的警报，无论是基于经济还是基于人员伤亡的警报，都应直观并与已建立的词典和程序相一致。有用的警报也应该既具体（尽管不确定），也可以采取行动。在此分析中，尝试以简单和直观的颜色编码警报标准进行尝试。但是保留了必要的不确定性度量，通过该度量可以衡量警报被高估或低估的可能性。拟议的影响规模和预警的实质是，根据可量化的损失估算，现在可以在全球范围内发生重大地震后立即获得可采取行动的损失信息。尽管存在不确定性，但利用EIS，PAGER的快速损失估算可以充分建议警报级别并建议适当的响应方案。要求或等待观察或准确度很高的损失估计可能会增加损失。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Natural Hazards Review》 |2011年第3期|p.125-139|共15页
  • 作者

    D. J. Wald; K. S. Jaiswal; A.M.ASCE; K. D. Marano; D. Bausch;

  • 作者单位

    Geophysicist, National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO 80401.;

    Civil Engineer, National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO 80401.;

    Civil Engineer, National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO 80401.;

    Geophysicist, National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, CO 80401.;

    Physical Scientist, FEMA, Denver, CO 80225;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    pager; impact scale; earthquake;

    机译：传呼机影响规模;地震;

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