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Estimating probable maximum loss from a Cascadia tsunami

机译：估计卡斯卡迪亚海啸可能造成的最大损失

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摘要

The Cascadia margin is capable of generating large magnitude seismic-tsunami. We use a 1:500 year tsunami hazard flood layer produced during a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment as the input to a pilot study of the vulnerability of residential and commercial buildings in Seaside, OR, USA. We map building exposure, apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model to calculate building vulnerability and estimate probable maximum loss (PML) associated with a 1:500 year tsunami flood. Almost US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US116 million. These figures only represent a tiny fraction of the total values of exposed assets and loss that would be associated with a Cascadia tsunami impacting the NW Pacific coast. Not withstanding the various issues associated with our approach, this study represents the first time that PML’s have ever been calculated for a Cascadia type tsunami, and these results have serious implications for tsunami disaster risk management in the region. This method has the potential to be rolled out across the United States and elsewhere for estimating building vulnerability and loss to tsunami.
机译：卡斯卡迪亚边缘能产生大地震海啸。我们使用概率海啸危害评估中产生的1：500年海啸危害洪水层作为对美国俄勒冈州锡赛德市住宅和商业建筑脆弱性的试点研究的输入。我们绘制建筑物暴露图，应用帕帕索马海啸脆弱性评估模型来计算建筑物脆弱性，并估计与1：500年海啸洪水相关的最大可能损失（PML）。价值将近5亿美元的建筑将被淹没，单层住宅的95％被毁，商业建筑的23％被毁，而PML的价值将超过5亿美元的建筑将被淹没，单层住宅的95％和商业建筑的23％ PML超过1.16亿美元，这些建筑物将被摧毁。这些数字仅代表与影响西北太平洋海岸的卡斯卡迪亚海啸有关的资产总值和损失的极小一部分。尽管存在与我们的方法相关的各种问题，但这项研究还是首次针对卡斯卡迪亚型海啸进行了PML计算，这些结果对于该地区的海啸灾难风险管理具有严重的意义。这种方法有可能在美国和其他地区推广，以评估建筑物的脆弱性和海啸损失。

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