...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome
【24h】

Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome

机译：罗马台伯河的实时洪水预报

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions.
机译：提出了一种自适应的概念模型，用于罗马的台伯河实时洪水预报。该模型模拟了降雨-径流转换，以重现覆盖约30％流域面积的37个未开挖子流域和水文网络中洪水泛洪过程的贡献。该模型的自适应部分涉及降雨径流分析：在任何时间步，通过最小化由观测值和计算出的水面高程之间的差平方和构成的目标函数，可以重新校准整个模型参数集。放电）。通过在三个历史洪水事件的实时预测条件下的应用对提出的模型进行了测试。为了评估预测准确性，以支持决策者并减少错误或遗漏警告的可能性，提供了根据蒙特卡洛程序计算的预测水面高程（或流量）的置信区间。对峰值预测，持久系数和预测置信区间幅度的误差的评估表明，有可能建立提前期为12 h的洪水预报模型，这对于民事保护行动很有用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号