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Global patterns of tropical forest fragmentation

机译：热带森林破碎化的全球格局

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摘要

Remote sensing enables the quantification of tropical deforestation with high spatial resolution(1,2). This in-depth mapping has led to substantial advances in the analysis of continent-wide fragmentation of tropical forests(1-4). Here we identified approximately 130 million forest fragments in three continents that show surprisingly similar power-law size and perimeter distributions as well as fractal dimensions. Power-law distributions(5-7) have been observed in many natural phenomena(8,9) such as wildfires, landslides and earthquakes. The principles of percolation theory(7,10,11) provide one explanation for the observed patterns, and suggest that forest fragmentation is close to the critical point of percolation; simulation modelling also supports this hypothesis. The observed patterns emerge not only from random deforestation, which can be described by percolation theory(10,11), but also from a wide range of deforestation and forest-recovery regimes. Our models predict that additional forest loss will result in a large increase in the total number of forest fragments-at maximum by a factor of 33 over 50 years-as well as a decrease in their size, and that these consequences could be partly mitigated by reforestation and forest protection.
机译：遥感技术能够以高空间分辨率对热带森林砍伐进行量化（1,2）。这种深入的测绘在分析整个大陆范围的热带森林碎片方面取得了实质性进展（1-4）。在这里，我们在三大洲发现了约1.3亿片森林碎片，这些碎片显示出惊人的相似的幂律尺寸，周长分布以及分形维数。在许多自然现象（8，9）中，如野火，山体滑坡和地震，都观察到了幂律分布（5-7）。渗流理论的原理（7,10,11）为观察到的模式提供了一种解释，并表明森林破碎化已接近渗流的临界点。仿真建模也支持该假设。观察到的模式不仅来自可以通过渗流理论描述的随机森林砍伐（10,11），而且还来自各种各样的森林砍伐和森林恢复制度。我们的模型预测，额外的森林流失将导致森林碎片总数大幅增加，在50年内最多增加33倍，并且森林面积减少，这些后果可以通过以下方式部分缓解：造林和森林保护。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2018年第7693期|519-522|共4页
  • 作者

    Taubert Franziska; Fischer Rico; Groeneveld Juergen; Lehmann Sebastian; Mueller Michael S.; Roedig Edna; Wiegand Thorsten; Huth Andreas;

  • 作者单位

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany|Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Forest Growth & Forest Comp Sci, PO 1117, D-01735 Tharandt, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany|German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Deutsch Pl 5e, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany;

    UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany|German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Deutsch Pl 5e, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany|Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res, Barbarastr 12, D-49076 Osnabruck, Germany;

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