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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

机译：气候变化推动南极无冰生境的扩大

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摘要

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km(2) by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.
机译：南极陆地生物多样性几乎仅发生在覆盖不到该大陆1％的无冰地区。气候变化将改变无冰地区的范围和结构，但这些影响的分布和严重性仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用温度指数融化模型，在两个政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）气候强迫情景下，量化了21世纪气候变化对无冰地区的影响。在最强的强迫情况下，到本世纪末，无冰地区可能会扩展超过17,000 km（2），增幅接近25％。这种扩张的大部分将发生在南极半岛，那里的无冰面积增加三倍，可能会大大改变生物多样性栖息地的可利用性和连通性。孤立的无冰地区将合并，虽然对生物多样性的影响尚不确定，但我们假设它们最终可能导致区域规模的生物同质化加剧，竞争性较低的物种灭绝和入侵物种的扩散。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2017年第7661期|49-54|共6页
  • 作者

    Lee Jasmine R.; Raymond Ben; Bracegirdle Thomas J.; Chades Iadine; Fuller Richard A.; Shaw Justine D.; Terauds Aleks;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia|CSIRO, Dutton Pk, Qld 4102, Australia;

    Dept Environm & Energy, Australian Antarctic Div, 203 Channel Highway, Kingston, Tas 7050, Australia|Univ Tasmania, Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia|Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tas 7000, Australia;

    British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Rd, Cambridge CB3 0ET, England;

    CSIRO, Dutton Pk, Qld 4102, Australia|Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;

    Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;

    Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia|Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia;

    Dept Environm & Energy, Australian Antarctic Div, 203 Channel Highway, Kingston, Tas 7050, Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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