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Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

机译：物候和营养水平对气候的物候敏感性

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摘要

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).
机译：物种之间对气候变化的物候响应差异可能会使生态相互作用失调，从而威胁生态系统功能。为了评估这些威胁，我们必须量化不同营养水平下气候变化对物种的相对影响。在这里，我们对10,003个陆地和水生物候数据集应用了气候敏感性剖面方法，并在空间上与温度和降水量数据进行了匹配，以量化气候敏感性的变化。在分类和营养组内的生物之间，气候敏感性的方向，幅度和时机明显不同。尽管存在这种可变性，我们仍在物候气候敏感性的方向和大小上检测到系统性变化。二级消费者对气候的敏感性始终低于其他人群。我们使用了本世纪中叶的气候变化预测来估计，主要消费者的物候事件发生时间的变化可能比其他营养水平的物种（平均早6.2天对2.5-2.9天）大，而分类学上的变化很大（1.1-14.8天）平均而言更早）。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2016年第7611期|241-245|共5页
  • 作者

    Thackeray Stephen J.; Henrys Peter A.; Hemming Deborah; Bell James R.; Botham Marc S.; Burthe Sarah; Helaouet Pierre; Johns David G.; Jones Ian D.; Leech David I.; Mackay Eleanor B.; Massimino Dario; Atkinson Sian; Bacon Philip J.; Brereton Tom M.; Carvalho Laurence; Clutton-Brock Tim H.; Duck Callan; Edwards Martin; Elliott J. Malcolm; Hall Stephen J. G.; Harrington Richard; Pearce-Higgins James W.; Hoye Toke T.; Kruuk Loeske E. B.; Pemberton Josephine M.; Sparks Tim H.; Thompson Paul M.; White Ian; Winfield Ian J.; Wanless Sarah;

  • 作者单位

    Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England;

    Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England;

    Met Off, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England;

    Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England;

    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Maclean Bldg,Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England;

    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland;

    Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, The Lab, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England;

    Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, The Lab, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England;

    Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England;

    British Trust Ornithol, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England;

    Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England;

    British Trust Ornithol, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England;

    Woodland Trust, Kempton Way, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England;

    Futtie Pk, Aberdeen AB31 4RX, Scotland;

    Butterfly Conservat, Wareham BH20 5QP, Dorset, England;

    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland;

    Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England;

    Univ St Andrews, Scottish Oceans Inst, Sea Mammal Res Unit, St Andrews KY16 8LB, Fife, Scotland;

    Sir Alister Hardy Fdn Ocean Sci, The Lab, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England;

    Freshwater Biol Assoc, Ambleside LA22 0LP, Cumbria, England;

    Lincoln Univ, Riseholme Hall,Riseholme Pk, Lincoln LN2 2LG, Lincolnshire, England;

    Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England;

    British Trust Ornithol, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England;

    Aarhus Univ, Aarhus Inst Adv Studies, Dept Biosci, Hoegh Guldbergs Gade 6B, Aarhus, Denmark|Aarhus Univ, Arctic Res Ctr, Hoegh Guldbergs Gade 6B, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark;

    Univ Edinburgh, Sch Biol Sci, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, Midlothian, Scotland|Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Canberra, ACT 2612, Australia;

    Univ Edinburgh, Sch Biol Sci, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, Midlothian, Scotland;

    Coventry Univ, Fac Engn & Comp, Priory St, Coventry CV1 5FB, W Midlands, England|Poznan Univ Life Sci, Inst Zool, Wojska Polskiego 71C, PL-60625 Poznan, Poland;

    Univ Aberdeen, George St, Cromarty IV11 8YJ, Ross Shire, Scotland;

    Peoples Trust Endangered Species, 15 Cloisters House,8 Battersea Pk Rd, London SW8 4BG, England;

    Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England;

    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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