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Plio - Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO_2 records

机译：Plio-使用高分辨率CO_2记录评估的更新世气候敏感性

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摘要

气候敏感性（全球平均气温因“辐射强迫”一定程度的变化而发生的变化）是我们对过去和未来气候变化的认识中的主要不确定性之一。例如，一些研究表明，气候敏感性可能会因平均气候状态本身的不同而不同。但迄今为止，由于缺乏地球被“更新世”冰芯覆盖时期之前的大气CO_2情况的高分辨率记录，研究人员无法对“上新世”这样的温暖时期的气候敏感性做出评估。Miguel Martinez-Boti等人发表了从深海沉积物硼同位素数据得到的一个关于“上新世”CO_2变化的新记录，并且发现，当将“更新世”时期大冰层的存在考虑进去，气候敏感性并没有变化，说明当前的估计值对于未来气候的预测来说是合适的。%Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO_2-based cene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO_2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 Kto4.5 K per doubling of CO_2.
机译：气候敏感性（全球平均气温因“辐射强迫”一定程度的变化而发生的变化）是我们对过去和未来气候变化的认识中的主要不确定性之一。例如，一些研究表明，气候敏感性可能会因平均气候状态本身的不同而不同。但迄今为止，由于缺乏地球被“更新世”冰芯覆盖时期之前的大气CO_2情况的高分辨率记录，研究人员无法对“上新世”这样的温暖时期的气候敏感性做出评估。Miguel Martinez-Boti等人发表了从深海沉积物硼同位素数据得到的一个关于“上新世”CO_2变化的新记录，并且发现，当将“更新世”时期大冰层的存在考虑进去，气候敏感性并没有变化，说明当前的估计值对于未来气候的预测来说是合适的。%Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO_2-based cene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO_2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 Kto4.5 K per doubling of CO_2.

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2015年第7537期|49-54a1|共7页
  • 作者

    M. A. Martinez-Boti; G. L. Foster; T. B. Chalk; E. J. Rohling; P. F. Sexton; D. J. Lunt; R. D. Pancost; M. P. S. Badger; D. N. Schmidt;

  • 作者单位

    Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK;

    Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK;

    Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK;

    Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK,Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia;

    Centre for Earth, Planetary, Space and Astronomical Research, The Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK;

    School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK,The Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UJ, UK;

    The Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UJ, UK,Organic Geochemistry Unit, School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS, UK;

    The Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UJ, UK,Organic Geochemistry Unit, School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS, UK;

    The Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UJ, UK,School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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