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Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection

机译：有组织的深对流频率的变化导致热带降雨增加

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摘要

Increasing global precipitation has been associated with a warming climate resulting from a strengthening of the hydrological cycle1. This increase, however, is not spatially uniform. Observations and models have found that changes in rainfall show patterns characterized as 'wet-gets-wetter' and 'warmer-gets-wetter'. These changes in precipitation are largely located in the tropics and hence are probably associated with convection. However, the underlying physical processes for the observed changes are not entirely clear. Here we show from observations that most of the regional increase in tropical precipitation is associated with changes in the frequency of organized deep convection. By assessing the contributions of various convective regimes to precipitation, we find that the spatial patterns of change in the frequency of organized deep convection are strongly correlated with observed change in rainfall, both positive and negative (correlation of 0.69), and can explain most of the patterns of increase in rainfall. In contrast, changes in less organized forms of deep convection or changes in precipitation within organized deep convection contribute less to changes in precipitation. Our results identify organized deep convection as the link between changes in rainfall and in the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere, thus providing a framework for obtaining a better understanding of changes in rainfall. Given the lack of a distinction between the different degrees of organization of convection in climate models10, our results highlight an area of priority for future climate model development in order to achieve accurate rainfall projections in a warming climate.%人们广泛认为，热带降水量将会随着气候变暖而增加，但驱动这种增加的过程却不确定，因此可能增加的程度和地点也不确定。现在，Jackson Tan及同事利用卫星观测结果显示，有组织的深层对流(实质上是能够带来大降雨和基本上是层状的云的大规模聚集)的增加，是造成热带降水量最近增加事件中大多数事件背后的原因。有组织深层对流的变化也基本上可解释热带降水变化的空间模式。
机译：全球降水增加与水文循环不断加强造成的气候变暖1有关。但是，这种增加在空间上并不均匀。观测和模型发现，降雨的变化呈现出“湿变湿”和“变暖变湿”的特征。降水的这些变化主要位于热带地区，因此可能与对流有关。但是，所观察到的变化的基本物理过程尚不完全清楚。在这里，我们根据观察结果表明，热带降水的大部分区域增加与有组织的深对流频率的变化有关。通过评估各种对流方式对降水的贡献，我们发现有组织的深度对流频率变化的空间模式与观测到的降水变化呈正相关（正值和负值均为0.69），并且可以解释大部分降雨增加的模式。相反，深度对流的无组织形式的变化或有组织的深度对流内降水的变化对降水变化的贡献较小。我们的研究结果表明，有组织的深度对流是降雨变化与热带大气动力学之间的联系，从而为更好地了解降雨变化提供了框架。鉴于在气候模式中对流组织的不同程度之间没有区别10，我们的结果突出了未来气候模式开发的优先领域，以便在变暖的气候中实现准确的降雨预测。现在，Jackson Tan及同事利用卫星观测结果显示，有组织的深层对流（）。将会发生气候变暖而增加，但驱动方式增加的过程却不确定，因此可能增加的程度和地点也不确定。至少是能够带来大降雨和基本上是层状的云的大规模聚集）的增加，是造成热带分布量最近增加的事件中大多数事件背后的原因。有组织深层对流的变化也基本上可解释热带降水变化的空间模式。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2015年第7544期|451-454q2|共5页
  • 作者

    Jackson Tan; Christian Jakob; William B. Rossow; George Tselioudis;

  • 作者单位

    ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia,NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia 23337, USA;

    ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia;

    CREST Institute at the City College of New York, New York, New York 10031, USA;

    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10027, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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