Model human adaptation to climate change

Paul I. Palmer; Matthew J. Smith

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Model human adaptation to climate change

机译：模拟人类对气候变化的适应

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Current models of Earth's climate capture physical and biophysical processes. But the planet has entered a new state: humans are adapting to, as well as causing, environmental changes. This major feedback must be modelled. Projections of the future climate based on simple economic narratives-from cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions to unmitigated growth-are unrealistic. Faced with droughts and rising sea levels, people alter their behaviour. Even if global climate policy is effective, and nations deliver on ambitious green-energy-production and sustainability targets, societies will be different in a warmer world. People will move to places that are richer in resources, or stay where they are and be pushed further into poverty. Population growth, urbanization, migration and conflict will compound reactions to global temperature rises.

机译：当前的地球气候模型捕获了物理和生物物理过程。但是地球已经进入一个新的状态：人类正在适应环境变化并引起环境变化。必须对主要反馈进行建模。从简单的经济叙述（从减少温室气体排放到不受抑制的增长）的未来气候预测是不现实的。面对干旱和海平面上升，人们改变了自己的行为。即使全球气候政策行之有效，各国实现了雄心勃勃的绿色能源生产和可持续性目标，但在这个温暖的世界中社会也会有所不同。人们将搬到资源丰富的地方，或者留在原地，进一步陷入贫困。人口增长，城市化，移民和冲突将加剧对全球温度上升的反应。

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《Nature》 |2014年第7515期|365-366|共2页
作者
Paul I. Palmer; Matthew J. Smith;
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作者单位

University of Edinburgh UK;

Microsoft Research in Cambridge, UK;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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正文语种 eng
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Model human adaptation to climate change

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