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Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas

机译：天然气使用量增加对年代际气候变化的影响有限

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摘要

水力压裂技术的发展导致了作为一种能源来使用的天然气的迅速增长。一些证据表明,天然气使用量的增长也许会导致温室气体排放压力的减轻,从而也会导致气候变化程度的减轻。五个能源—气候模拟研究小组之间的这项合作研究显示,在天然气供应量充足的情况下,其消耗量的增加对气候变化实际上影响很小或没有影响。作者提出,天然气产量和使用的增加既不能在今后几十年代替一项气候政策,对人为造成的排放问题也不会构成一大新的复杂性因素。%The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of eco-nomically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO_2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to + 170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO_2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from - 2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to+7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.
机译：水力压裂技术的发展导致了作为一种能源来使用的天然气的迅速增长。一些证据表明,天然气使用量的增长也许会导致温室气体排放压力的减轻,从而也会导致气候变化程度的减轻。五个能源—气候模拟研究小组之间的这项合作研究显示,在天然气供应量充足的情况下,其消耗量的增加对气候变化实际上影响很小或没有影响。作者提出,天然气产量和使用的增加既不能在今后几十年代替一项气候政策,对人为造成的排放问题也不会构成一大新的复杂性因素。%The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of eco-nomically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO_2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to + 170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO_2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from - 2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to+7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2014年第7523期|482-485B1|共5页
  • 作者

    Haewon McJeon; Jae Edmonds; Nico Bauer; Leon Clarke; Brian Fisher; Brian P. Flannery; Jerome Hilaire; Volker Krey; Giacomo Marangoni; Raymond Mi; Keywan Riahi; Holger Rogner; Massimo Tavoni;

  • 作者单位

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA;

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany;

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA;

    BAEconomics, PO Box 5447, Kingston, Australian Capital Territory 2604, Australia;

    Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street Northwest, Washington, DC 20036, USA;

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;

    Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4b, 20156 Milan, Italy;

    BAEconomics, PO Box 5447, Kingston, Australian Capital Territory 2604, Australia;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;

    Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4b, 20156 Milan, Italy;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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