The Forecast 2018 Is Cloudy With Record Heat

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The Forecast 2018 Is Cloudy With Record Heat

机译：2018年预报阴天高温

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In August 2007, Doug Smith took the biggest gamble of his career. After more than ten years of work with fellow modellers at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, Smith published a detailed prediction of how the climate would change over the better part of a decade1. His team forecasted that global warming would stall briefly and then pick up speed, sending the planet into record-breaking territory within a few years. The Hadley prediction has not fared particularly well. Six years on, global temperatures have yet to shoot up as it projected. Despite this underwhelming result, such near-term forecasts have caught on among many climate modellers, who are now trying to predict how global conditions will evolve over the next several years and beyond. Eventually, they hope to offer forecasts that will enable humanity to prepare for the decade ahead just as meteorologists help people to choose their clothes each morning.

机译：2007年8月，道格·史密斯（Doug Smith）获得了职业生涯中最大的赌注。在与英国埃克塞特市气象局Hadley中心的建模人员一起工作了十多年之后，史密斯发表了一份详细的预测报告，详细介绍了未来十年的大部分时间气候将如何变化1。他的团队预测，全球变暖将短暂停顿，然后加快速度，在几年内将地球送入破纪录的领土。 Hadley的预测并没有特别好。六年过去了，全球气温仍未达到预期。尽管取得了如此出色的结果，但许多气候建模人员仍对这种短期预测产生了兴趣，他们现在正试图预测未来几年及以后的全球环境将如何演变。最终，他们希望提供天气预报，使人类为未来的十年做好准备，就像气象学家每天早上帮助人们选择衣服一样。

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《Nature》 |2013年第7457期|139-141|共3页
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JEFFTOLLEFSON;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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The Forecast 2018 Is Cloudy With Record Heat

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