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No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns

机译：尽管区域格局发生了变化，但全球温度变化没有增加

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Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods~1, but there is considerable interest in determining whether global warming is increasing climate variability at present~(2-6). This interest is motivated by an understanding that increased variability and resulting extreme weather conditions may be more difficult for society to adapt to than altered mean conditions~3. So far, however, in spite of suggestions of increased variability~2, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether it is occurring~7. Here we show that although fluctuations in annual temperature have indeed shown substantial geographical variation over the past few decades~2, the time-evolving standard deviation of globally averaged temperature anomalies has been stable. A feature of the changes has been a tendency for many regions of low variability to experience increases, which might contribute to the perception of increased climate volatility. The normalization of temperature anomalies~2 creates the impression of larger relative overall increases, but our use of absolute values, which we argue is a more appropriate approach, reveals little change. Regionally, greater year-to-year changes recently occurred in much of North America and Europe. Many climate models predict that total variability will ultimately decrease under high greenhouse gas concentrations, possibly associated with reductions in sea-ice cover. Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation.
机译：格陵兰岛冰芯的证据表明，在过去的某些寒冷时期〜1，年际温度变化性可能较高，但目前对确定全球变暖是否正在增加气候变化性有相当大的兴趣[2-6]。这种兴趣是由一种理解激发的，即与变化的平均条件相比，增加的变异性和由此产生的极端天气条件可能使社会更难适应3。然而，到目前为止，尽管有人建议增加可变性〜2，但是否存在可变性仍存在相当大的不确定性〜7。在这里，我们表明，尽管过去20〜20年间年气温的波动确实显示出较大的地理差异，但全球平均温度距平随时间变化的标准偏差却保持稳定。变化的一个特点是，许多低变异性地区的趋势是增加，这可能有助于人们认识到气候波动性增加。温度异常〜2的归一化给人的印象是总体上相对较大的增加，但是我们认为绝对值的使用（我们认为是更合适的方法）几乎没有变化。从地区上看，北美和欧洲大部分地区最近发生了较大的年度变化。许多气候模型预测，在高温室气体浓度下，总可变性最终会降低，这可能与海冰覆盖率的降低有关。我们的发现与这样的观点相矛盾，即变暖的世界将自动成为更全面的气候变化之一。

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2013年第7462期|327-330|共4页
  • 作者

    Chris Huntingford; Philip D. Jones; Valerie N. Livina; Timothy M. Lenton; Peter M. Cox;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford 0X10 8BB, UK;

    Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK,Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia;

    School of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK,National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, Teddington TW11 OLW, UK;

    College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK;

    College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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