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Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

机译:接近地球生物圈的状态转变

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摘要

对生物圈将会怎样响应于人类活动而变化的大rn部分预测都植根于预测轨迹。这样的模型倾向rn于不去预测临界变化或临界点,虽说最近的研rn究工作表明这些情况发生的概率很高。而且,rn在地方尺度上,当过了临界阈限时,生态系统rn已知会在不同状态之间突然变化。这些作者rn们对生态学和古生物学各个方面证明这样一rn种转变在整个生物圈的尺度上正在逼近的证据rn进行了评估,他们接着提出了关于生物学预测rn工作可以怎样来改进、以使我们能够在全球以rn及地方尺度上检测临界变化之早期警示信号rn的建议。%Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
机译:对生物圈将会怎样响应于人类活动而变化的大rn部分预测都植根于预测轨迹。这样的模型倾向rn于不去预测临界变化或临界点,虽说最近的研rn究工作表明这些情况发生的概率很高。而且,rn在地方尺度上,当过了临界阈限时,生态系统rn已知会在不同状态之间突然变化。这些作者rn们对生态学和古生物学各个方面证明这样一rn种转变在整个生物圈的尺度上正在逼近的证据rn进行了评估,他们接着提出了关于生物学预测rn工作可以怎样来改进、以使我们能够在全球以rn及地方尺度上检测临界变化之早期警示信号rn的建议。%Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

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  • 来源
    《Nature》 |2012年第7401期|p.52-58A1|共8页
  • 作者单位

    Department of Integrate Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA;

    lntegrative Ecology Group, Estacion Biologica de Donana, CSIC, Calle Americo Vespucio s, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain;

    TRU NORTH Labs, Berkeley, California 94705, USA;

    Department of Biology, The University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131, USA;

    Department of Geosciences and Geography and Finnish Museum of Natural History, PO Box 64, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland;

    Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA;

    Departamento de Ecologia, Facultad de Ciencias Biologicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile,lnstituto de Ecologia y Biodiversidad.Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile,The Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA,Facultad de Ciencias Biologicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile;

    Pacific Ecoinformatics and Computational Ecology Lab, 1604 McGee Avenue, Berkeley, California 94703, USA;

    Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada;

    California Academy of Sciences, 55 Music Concourse Drive, San Francisco, California 94118, USA;

    'Department of Geology, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA;

    Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.;

    Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Integrate Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA,Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Integrate Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;

    Department of Biophysics and Biochemistry, University of California, San Francisco, California 94102, USA;

    Department of Conservation Biology, Estacion Biologica de Donana, CSIC, Calle Americo Vespucio s, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain;

    Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, 4344 Shaw Boulevard, Saint Louis, Missouri 63110, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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